SPSC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SPSC - SPS Commerce, Inc.
$56.23
0.56 (1.01%)
▲
5d:
+2.24%
30d:
-6.27%
90d:
-38.08%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
20d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SPSC appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -12.2% annual earnings decline despite 47% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SPSC appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -12.2% annual earnings decline despite 47% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$124.47
Based on 8.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$77.28
27.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SPSC is currently trading at $56.23, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $55.31 to $61.42. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.1) compared to its historical average (16.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 46.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPSC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $53.05, while resistance sits at $62.06.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $82.09 (+46.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPSC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $53.05, while resistance sits at $62.06.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $82.09 (+46.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$55.31 -
$61.42
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 46.0% below Wall St target ($82.09)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$55.31 -
$61.42
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$53.05
Resistance Level
$62.06
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.09
Wall Street Target
$82.09
(+46.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
46.9%
Profit Margin
12.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.1 vs 16.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$50.61
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$45.55
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$40.99
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→16)
$60.61
(+8%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 12.9%)
$162.86
(+190%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.1, Growth: 12.9%)
$80.82
(+44%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.4, Growth: 12.9%)
$68.70
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.46
Bull Case
$127.49
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 25.9
Base Case
$115.90
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 23.6
Bear Case
$39.41
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.1 to 16.4
Stabilization Target:
$83.14
(+47.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+47.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 4:16 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:16 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:16 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SPSC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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2026-02-24
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