SPSC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SPSC - SPS Commerce, Inc.
$89.26
0.31 (0.35%)
▲
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 09, 2026
7d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SPSC shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SPSC shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$126.05
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$78.27
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SPSC is currently trading at $89.26, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $89.58 to $92.97. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.7) is in line with its historical norms (20.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 8.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPSC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $86.37, while resistance sits at $96.54.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (10th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $99.82 (+11.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPSC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $86.37, while resistance sits at $96.54.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (10th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $99.82 (+11.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$89.58 -
$92.97
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
10th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 10th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($99.82)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$89.58 -
$92.97
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$4.91
(5.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$86.37
Resistance Level
$96.54
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.71
Wall Street Target
$99.82
(+11.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.1%
Profit Margin
11.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.7 vs 20.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$88.90
(0%)
2-Year Target
$88.55
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$88.19
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→20)
$89.50
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 9.7%)
$133.22
(+49%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.7, Growth: 9.7%)
$117.73
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.8, Growth: 9.7%)
$100.07
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 40.26 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.24
Bull Case
$198.40
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 44.3
Base Case
$180.36
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 40.3
Bear Case
$61.32
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.7 to 20.0
Stabilization Target:
$90.58
(+1.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.5%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 1:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SPSC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced SPSC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SPSC price and gamma walls.
