SPSC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SPSC - SPS Commerce, Inc.
$55.08
0.59 (1.08%)
▲
5d:
-5.7%
30d:
-2.53%
90d:
-40.08%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
22d
Get Alerted When SPSC Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SPSC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SPSC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$125.22
Based on 8.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$77.75
29.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SPSC is currently trading at $55.08, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $55.49 to $61.57. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.9) compared to its historical average (16.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 46.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPSC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $53.05, while resistance sits at $62.57.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $82.09 (+49.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPSC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $53.05, while resistance sits at $62.57.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $82.09 (+49.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$55.49 -
$61.57
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 49.0% below Wall St target ($82.09)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.7% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$55.49 -
$61.57
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$4.19
(7.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$53.05
Resistance Level
$62.57
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.86
Wall Street Target
$82.09
(+49.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
46.9%
Profit Margin
12.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.9 vs 16.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$49.57
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$44.61
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$40.15
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→17)
$60.98
(+11%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 12.9%)
$162.86
(+196%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.9, Growth: 12.9%)
$79.17
(+44%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.2, Growth: 12.9%)
$67.30
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.46
Bull Case
$127.49
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 25.9
Base Case
$115.90
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 23.6
Bear Case
$39.41
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.9 to 16.5
Stabilization Target:
$83.65
(+51.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+51.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 3:33 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:33 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:33 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is SPSC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jamie Thingelstad
SELL
2418 shares
2026-02-24
Chadwick Collins
SELL
13384 shares
2026-02-20
Kimberly K Nelson
SELL
6300 shares
2026-02-20
Top Rated Software - Application Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Software - Application by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
HUBS
HubSpot Inc |
STRONG BUY
36 analysts |
$377 | 52 HOLD |
|
UBER
Uber Technologies Inc |
STRONG BUY
54 analysts |
$104 | 54 HOLD |
|
NOW
ServiceNow Inc |
STRONG BUY
47 analysts |
$189 | 47 HOLD |
|
DDOG
Datadog Inc |
STRONG BUY
46 analysts |
$182 | 54 HOLD |
|
CRM
Salesforce.com Inc |
STRONG BUY
55 analysts |
$274 | 56 HOLD |
