SRCE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SRCE - 1st Source Corp
$82.09
-1.22 (-1.46%)
▼
5d:
+1.11%
30d:
+10.54%
90d:
+16.8%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
18d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SRCE is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: SRCE is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$86.58
Based on 3.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$53.76
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SRCE is currently trading at $82.09, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $74.29 to $80.49. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.7) compared to its historical average (10.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SRCE is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $78.10. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SRCE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SRCE is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $78.10. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SRCE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$74.29 -
$80.49
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($79.67)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$74.29 -
$80.49
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$72.19
Resistance Level
$78.10
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.68
Wall Street Target
$79.67
(-3.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.5%
Profit Margin
37.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.1% premium
PE vs Historical
11.7 vs 10.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$85.46
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$88.96
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$92.61
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$81.65
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 3.3%)
$168.62
(+105%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.7, Growth: 3.3%)
$90.45
(+10%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.9, Growth: 3.3%)
$76.88
(-6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.52
Bull Case
$98.76
(+20%)
Analyst growth 7.8%, PE expands to 14.1
Base Case
$89.78
(+9%)
Market implied 7.8%, PE stable at 12.8
Bear Case
$56.65
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 6:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:55 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:55 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SRCE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Melody Birmingham
BUY
51 shares
2026-02-13
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