SRCE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SRCE - 1st Source Corp
$71.24
-0.58 (-0.81%)
▼
5d:
-3.46%
30d:
-1.79%
90d:
+1.09%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SRCE shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SRCE shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$84.72
Based on 3.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$52.60
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SRCE is currently trading at $71.24, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $72.31 to $74.21. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.2) is in line with its historical norms (10.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SRCE is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $70.66. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $79.67 (+11.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SRCE is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $70.66. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $79.67 (+11.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$72.31 -
$74.21
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($79.67)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$72.31 -
$74.21
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$70.66
Resistance Level
$74.65
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.19
Wall Street Target
$79.67
(+11.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.5%
Profit Margin
37.7%
PE vs Historical
10.2 vs 10.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$71.24
(0%)
2-Year Target
$71.24
(0%)
3-Year Target
$71.24
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$71.33
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 3.0%)
$168.87
(+137%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.2, Growth: 3.0%)
$77.95
(+9%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.7, Growth: 3.0%)
$66.25
(-7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.52
Bull Case
$84.74
(+19%)
Analyst growth 7.3%, PE expands to 12.1
Base Case
$77.03
(+8%)
Market implied 7.3%, PE stable at 11.0
Bear Case
$48.84
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 6:28 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:28 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:28 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SRCE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Melody Birmingham
BUY
51 shares
2026-02-13
John B Griffith
SELL
1900 shares
2025-12-10
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