STAG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STAG - STAG INDUSTRIAL, INC.
$36.09
0.00 (0.00%)
▲
5d:
-2.41%
30d:
-7.98%
90d:
-3.09%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: STAG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: STAG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$41.94
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.04
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STAG is currently trading at $36.09, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.25 to $39.27. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 31.6) is in line with its historical norms (34.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 57.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STAG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $35.77. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: STAG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $41.55 (+15.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STAG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $35.77. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: STAG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $41.55 (+15.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$37.25 -
$39.27
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($41.55)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$37.25 -
$39.27
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.77
Resistance Level
$38.91
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
31.63
Wall Street Target
$41.55
(+15.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
57.9%
Profit Margin
32.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
31.6 vs 34.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.97
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$33.89
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$32.84
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 32→35)
$36.03
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 31.6, Growth: 12.1%)
$50.83
(+41%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 12.1%)
$35.92
(-1%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 12.1%)
$30.53
(-15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 25.10 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.46
Bull Case
$31.50
(-15%)
Analyst growth -21.8%, PE expands to 27.6
Base Case
$28.64
(-23%)
Market implied -21.8%, PE stable at 25.1
Bear Case
$24.92
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 31.6 to 34.7
Stabilization Target:
$39.60
(+9.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 6:23 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:23 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:23 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STAG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Matts Pinard
SELL
25242 shares
2026-02-23
William R Crooker
SELL
93732 shares
2026-02-23
Virgis Colbert
SELL
18000 shares
2026-02-19
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