STM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STM - STMicroelectronics N.V.
$27.89
-0.73 (-2.55%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Jan 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: STM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: STM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$51.48
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.97
12.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STM is currently trading at $27.89, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $26.59 to $29.08. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 25.4) is in line with its historical norms (23.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STM is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $26.91, while resistance sits at $30.41.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.76 (+11.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STM is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $26.91, while resistance sits at $30.41.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.76 (+11.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$26.59 -
$29.08
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($31.76)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.7% growth with -2.0% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$26.59 -
$29.08
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$26.91
Resistance Level
$30.41
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.44
Wall Street Target
$31.76
(+11.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-29.7%
Profit Margin
4.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.7% premium
PE vs Historical
25.4 vs 23.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$29.39
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$30.19
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$31.00
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→24)
PE COMPRESSION
$28.64
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.4, Growth: 59.6%)
$96.59
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 59.6%)
$84.67
(+196%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 59.6%)
$71.97
(+152%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 29.67 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.94
Bull Case
$33.68
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 31.2
Base Case
$27.89
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 29.7
Bear Case
$21.34
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 26.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 7:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:46 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced STM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's STM price and gamma walls.
