STM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STM - STMicroelectronics N.V.
$34.55
3.23 (10.31%)
▲
5d:
+8.14%
30d:
+3.2%
90d:
+32.78%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
21d
Smart Money Accumulation
STM is down 5.4% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $35 2026-05-15 with 7,329 OI. Call ratio: 70% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: STM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: STM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$73.36
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$45.55
24.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STM is currently trading at $34.55, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.09 to $34.09. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.0) is in line with its historical norms (20.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $34.09. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 10.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $34.09. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 10.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$32.09 -
$34.09
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding STM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+10.3%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($35.22)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$32.09 -
$34.09
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.38
Resistance Level
$34.09
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.98
Wall Street Target
$35.22
(+1.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-29.7%
Profit Margin
1.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.0 vs 20.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.58
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$32.64
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$31.73
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→21)
$34.60
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 56.9%)
$137.28
(+297%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.0, Growth: 56.9%)
$116.61
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.1, Growth: 56.9%)
$99.12
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 32.47 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.98
Bull Case
$38.23
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 34.1
Base Case
$31.66
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 32.5
Bear Case
$24.22
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 29.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.0 to 20.7
Stabilization Target:
$37.67
(+9.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 10:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced STM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's STM price and gamma walls.
