STNE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STNE - StoneCo Ltd. Class A Common Shares
$9.61
-0.09 (-0.93%)
▼
5d:
-10.77%
30d:
-37.15%
90d:
-43.0%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: STNE is down 10.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: STNE is down 10.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.03
Based on 11.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.41
44.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STNE is currently trading at $9.61, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.62 to $14.65. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 0.8) compared to its historical average (1.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 15.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 46.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STNE is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.19 (+99.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STNE is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.19 (+99.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$10.62 -
$14.65
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 99.7% below Wall St target ($19.19)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -10.8% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.62 -
$14.65
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.45
Resistance Level
$11.52
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.76
Wall Street Target
$19.19
(+99.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
46.1%
Profit Margin
17.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-15.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.8 vs 1.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-15.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.65
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$7.78
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$7.01
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→1)
$12.03
(+25%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 18.6%)
$467.12
(+4761%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.8, Growth: 18.6%)
$16.02
(+67%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.6, Growth: 18.6%)
$13.62
(+42%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 5.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.76
Bull Case
$21.34
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 6.1
Base Case
$19.40
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 5.5
Bear Case
$6.60
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.8 to 1.3
Stabilization Target:
$16.50
(+71.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+71.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 6:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STNE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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