Is STX stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, STX is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: STX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of STX stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for STX to be between $375.66 and $418.21. The current price is $370.71.

What is the analyst price target for STX?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for STX is $475.35. This implies a potential upside of 25.1% from current levels.

STX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

STX - Seagate Technology Holdings PLC Ordinary Shares (Ireland)

COMPUTER STORAGE DEVICES

$370.71

-9.36 (-2.46%) ▼

5d: -8.24%

30d: -9.1%

90d: +29.52%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your STX Gains

Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: May 05, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

STX is down 7.6% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $420 2026-05-15 with 1,849 OI. Call ratio: 66% View Scanner →

Strength: 5.4/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: STX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$869.14

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$539.67

31.3% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.5x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: STX is currently trading at $370.71, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $375.66 to $418.21. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.2) compared to its historical average (22.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 67.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, STX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $376.08. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: STX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $475.35 (+25.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY LOW

Fair Price Range $375.66 - $418.21

Company Quality Score 49/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 57.1%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 25.1% below Wall St target ($475.35)
CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-8.2%) - monitor closely

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $375.66 - $418.21

Current vs Fair Value SLIGHTLY LOW

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $376.08

Resistance Level $439.73

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Mar 27, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 19.16

Wall Street Target $475.35 (+25.1%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 21.5%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 67.7%

Profit Margin 19.6%

Valuation Discount vs History -5.2% cheaper

PE vs Historical 19.2 vs 22.5 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -5.2% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $360.31 (-5%)

2-Year Target $341.57 (-10%)

3-Year Target $323.81 (-15%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 19→23) $380.25 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 22.4, Growth: 52.3%) $1499.63 (+295%)

Base: (SPY PE: 19.2, Growth: 52.3%) $1282.74 (+238%)

Bear: (PE: 16.3, Growth: 52.3%) $1090.33 (+187%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (47x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 46.52 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.84

Bull Case $904.71 (+124%)

Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 51.2

Base Case $822.46 (+104%)

Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 46.5

Bear Case $279.64 (-31%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 39.5

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.2 to 22.5

Stabilization Target: $446.32 (+17.4%)

PE Expansion Potential: +17.4%

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Last updated: March 30, 2026 10:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:24 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

William D Mosley SELL 20000 shares 2026-03-02

Kian Fatt Chong SELL 5846 shares 2026-02-23

Ro Khanna SELL 2026-02-05

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