STX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STX - Seagate Technology Holdings PLC Ordinary Shares (Ireland)
$407.69
-38.88 (-8.71%)
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LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Jan 27, 2026
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17 traders called STX this week
61% bullish • 7 bearish
61% bullish • 7 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: STX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: STX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$864.45
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$536.75
24.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STX is currently trading at $407.69, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $278.23 to $371.23. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.4) is in line with its historical norms (24.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $321.19, while resistance sits at $457.84. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: STX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $396.68. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $321.19, while resistance sits at $457.84. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: STX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $396.68. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$278.23 -
$371.23
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
43.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding STX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+9.8% above fair value)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-8.7%)
- BEARISH: Trading 11.2% above Wall St target ($396.68)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$278.23 -
$371.23
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$321.19
Resistance Level
$457.84
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.45
Wall Street Target
$396.68
(-11.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
72.3%
Profit Margin
17.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.3% premium
PE vs Historical
24.5 vs 24.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$447.91
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$449.25
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$450.60
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→24)
PE COMPRESSION
$447.91
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.4, Growth: 41.1%)
$1253.43
(+181%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 41.1%)
$1143.41
(+156%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 41.1%)
$971.89
(+118%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (50x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 49.99 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.86
Bull Case
$974.45
(+139%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 55.0
Base Case
$885.86
(+117%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 50.0
Bear Case
$301.19
(-26%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 42.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 3:53 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:53 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:53 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ban Seng Teh
SELL
1410 shares
2025-10-13
William D Mosley
SELL
20000 shares
2025-10-01
John Christopher Morris
SELL
377 shares
2025-09-16
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