SMCI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMCI - Super Micro Computer, Inc. Common Stock
$35.37
1.75 (5.21%)
▲
5d:
+30.56%
30d:
+52.33%
90d:
+2.88%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 8, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 9.0/10
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53 traders called SMCI this week
93% bullish • 5 bearish
93% bullish • 5 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: SMCI is 16.2% above its trading range ($30.44). Market expects 2.7% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: SMCI is 16.2% above its trading range ($30.44). Market expects 2.7% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$63.52
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$39.44
10.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMCI is currently trading at $35.37, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.43 to $30.44. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.9) is in line with its historical norms (10.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMCI is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $35.64. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: SMCI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMCI is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $35.64. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: SMCI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$23.43 -
$30.44
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SMCI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+16.2% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.2%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($36.75)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to 16.2% overvaluation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$23.43 -
$30.44
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.46
Resistance Level
$35.64
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 8, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.95
Wall Street Target
$36.75
(+3.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
122.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
326.0%
Profit Margin
3.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.7% premium
PE vs Historical
11.0 vs 10.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.32
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$37.31
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$38.31
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$35.33
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 25.7%)
$140.79
(+298%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.0, Growth: 25.7%)
$70.28
(+99%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.3, Growth: 25.7%)
$59.74
(+69%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.90
Bull Case
$62.86
(+78%)
Analyst growth 70.0%, PE expands to 19.5
Base Case
$57.14
(+62%)
Market implied 70.0%, PE stable at 17.7
Bear Case
$22.86
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 09, 2026 6:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:42 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMCI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John Boozman
SELL
2025-12-31
John Boozman
BUY
2025-12-11
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2025-11-12
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SMCI price and gamma walls.
