SMCI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMCI - Super Micro Computer, Inc. Common Stock
$32.24
-0.41 (-1.26%)
▼
5d:
-0.12%
30d:
+8.66%
90d:
-2.07%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 5, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
SMCI is down 9.7% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $30 2026-03-20 with 65,005 OI. Call ratio: 61% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.9/10
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21 traders called SMCI this week
95% bullish • 2 bearish
95% bullish • 2 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SMCI shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SMCI shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$62.27
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.67
16.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMCI is currently trading at $32.24, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $30.12 to $32.89. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.0) is in line with its historical norms (10.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMCI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $29.68, while resistance sits at $33.85.
Market Sentiment: SMCI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $41.31 (+26.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMCI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $29.68, while resistance sits at $33.85.
Market Sentiment: SMCI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $41.31 (+26.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$30.12 -
$32.89
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.5% below Wall St target ($41.31)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$30.12 -
$32.89
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$29.68
Resistance Level
$33.86
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 5, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.03
Wall Street Target
$41.31
(+26.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
123.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
19.2%
Profit Margin
3.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.6% premium
PE vs Historical
11.0 vs 10.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$32.85
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$33.04
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$33.24
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$32.56
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.6, Growth: 32.3%)
$154.77
(+374%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.0, Growth: 32.3%)
$75.55
(+131%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.4, Growth: 32.3%)
$64.22
(+97%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.37
Bull Case
$71.02
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 25.9
Base Case
$64.56
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 23.6
Bear Case
$21.95
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 06, 2026 6:12 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:12 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:12 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMCI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John Boozman
SELL
2025-12-31
John Boozman
BUY
2025-12-11
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2025-11-12
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Advanced SMCI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SMCI price and gamma walls.
