SUPN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SUPN - Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$49.27
-0.25 (-0.50%)
▼
5d:
+0.04%
30d:
-9.98%
90d:
-4.46%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
SUPN is down 3.3% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $60 2026-06-18 with 81 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SUPN trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SUPN trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$117.52
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$72.97
32.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SUPN is currently trading at $49.27, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $49.42 to $54.37. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.7) compared to its historical average (14.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 11.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SUPN is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $46.83, while resistance sits at $51.15.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (7th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $63.17 (+27.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SUPN is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $46.83, while resistance sits at $51.15.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (7th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $63.17 (+27.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$49.42 -
$54.37
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
7th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 7th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.6% below Wall St target ($63.17)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$49.42 -
$54.37
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.61
(7.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$46.83
Resistance Level
$51.15
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.73
Wall Street Target
$63.17
(+27.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.1%
Profit Margin
-5.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.7 vs 14.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$46.30
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$43.29
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$40.48
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→14)
$49.33
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 78.4%)
$319.03
(+544%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.7, Growth: 78.4%)
$167.13
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.0, Growth: 78.4%)
$142.06
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.7 to 14.3
Stabilization Target:
$60.35
(+21.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 2:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:03 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:03 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SUPN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
11
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Padmanabh P Bhatt
SELL
7250 shares
2026-03-18
Padmanabh P Bhatt
SELL
50000 shares
2026-03-16
Jack A Khattar
SELL
35000 shares
2026-03-13
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Advanced SUPN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SUPN price and gamma walls.
