SUPN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SUPN - Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$48.16
-0.90 (-1.83%)
▼
5d:
-0.19%
30d:
-3.47%
90d:
-13.51%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 24, 2026
21d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SUPN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SUPN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$30.58
Based on -0.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.99
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SUPN is currently trading at $48.16, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $48.98 to $51.20. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 19.3) compared to its historical average (12.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 15.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SUPN is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $47.94. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.33 (+27.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SUPN is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $47.94. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.33 (+27.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$48.98 -
$51.20
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.4% below Wall St target ($61.33)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 15.2% growth which is achievable
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$48.98 -
$51.20
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.85
(5.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$47.94
Resistance Level
$50.55
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.30
Wall Street Target
$61.33
(+27.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.1%
Profit Margin
-2.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+15.2% premium
PE vs Historical
19.3 vs 12.6
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+15.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$55.48
(+15%)
2-Year Target
$63.91
(+33%)
3-Year Target
$73.63
(+53%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$48.06
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -5.0%)
$47.77
(+-1%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.3, Growth: -5.0%)
$41.35
(-14%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.6, Growth: -5.0%)
$26.99
(-44%)
Last updated: February 01, 2026 11:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:05 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:05 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SUPN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
13
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jack A Khattar
SELL
59900 shares
2025-10-09
Jack A Khattar
SELL
10235 shares
2025-09-29
Jack A Khattar
SELL
29513 shares
2025-09-23
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