TAC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TAC - TransAlta Corporation
$12.78
-0.77 (-5.68%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 19, 2026
19d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TAC shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TAC shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.36
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.57
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TAC is currently trading at $12.78, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.25 to $13.15. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 64.5) compared to its historical average (38.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 19.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TAC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $12.02, while resistance sits at $13.99. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: TAC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TAC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $12.02, while resistance sits at $13.99. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: TAC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$12.25 -
$13.15
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.7%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($13.67)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 19.3% growth with -3.6% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$12.25 -
$13.15
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.02
Resistance Level
$13.99
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
64.52
Wall Street Target
$13.67
(+0.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-78.6%
Profit Margin
-5.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+19.3% premium
PE vs Historical
64.5 vs 38.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+19.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.17
(+19%)
2-Year Target
$19.29
(+42%)
3-Year Target
$23.01
(+70%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 65→38)
PE COMPRESSION
$13.55
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TAC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced TAC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TAC price and gamma walls.
