VST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VST - Vistra Corp.
$151.05
-2.11 (-1.38%)
▼
5d:
-9.97%
30d:
-4.38%
90d:
-1.89%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 9.0/10
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1 traders called VST this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: VST shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: VST shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$274.94
Based on 8.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$170.71
11.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VST is currently trading at $151.05, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $149.24 to $163.64. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.4) compared to its historical average (16.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VST is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $141.54, while resistance sits at $165.02.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $222.89 (+47.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VST is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $141.54, while resistance sits at $165.02.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $222.89 (+47.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$149.24 -
$163.64
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding VST? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 47.6% below Wall St target ($222.89)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -10.0% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$149.24 -
$163.64
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$141.54
Resistance Level
$165.02
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.39
Wall Street Target
$222.89
(+47.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
43.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-52.3%
Profit Margin
11.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.4 vs 16.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$141.84
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$133.18
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$125.06
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→16)
$150.35
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 13.4%)
$357.79
(+137%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.4, Growth: 13.4%)
$220.00
(+46%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.4, Growth: 13.4%)
$187.00
(+24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.17 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.97
Bull Case
$312.30
(+107%)
Analyst growth 88.9%, PE expands to 27.7
Base Case
$283.91
(+88%)
Market implied 88.9%, PE stable at 25.2
Bear Case
$102.18
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.4 to 16.1
Stabilization Target:
$181.59
(+20.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 11:28 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:28 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:28 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
2
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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2026-03-09
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