TAK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TAK - Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited American Depositary Shares (each representing 1/2 of a share of Common Stock)
$17.23
0.06 (0.35%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Jan 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TAK trades at premium valuation expecting 4.2% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: TAK trades at premium valuation expecting 4.2% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.35
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.26
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TAK is currently trading at $17.23, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.59 to $16.61. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 0.2) compared to its historical average (0.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TAK is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $17.25. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TAK has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.19 (+11.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TAK is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $17.25. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TAK has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.19 (+11.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$15.59 -
$16.61
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.6%
Protect Your Profits
TAK is technically overbought (RSI 73). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($19.19)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 4.2% growth which is achievable
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$15.59 -
$16.61
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.78
Resistance Level
$17.26
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.16
Wall Street Target
$19.19
(+11.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
30.5%
Profit Margin
0.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.2% premium
PE vs Historical
0.2 vs 0.1
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.89
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$18.64
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$19.43
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 0→0)
PE COMPRESSION
$12.41
(-28%)
Significant PE compression expected
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 114.3%)
$8253.29
(+47968%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.2, Growth: 114.3%)
$57.95
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.1, Growth: 114.3%)
$37.01
(+116%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (0x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 11.52 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.50
Bull Case
$20.81
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 12.1
Base Case
$17.23
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 11.5
Bear Case
$13.18
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 10.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 7:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:33 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TAK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced TAK Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TAK price and gamma walls.
