TCBI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TCBI - Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc.
$95.98
-1.13 (-1.16%)
▼
5d:
-3.98%
30d:
-6.32%
90d:
-7.19%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 16, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TCBI shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TCBI shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$141.85
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$88.08
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TCBI is currently trading at $95.98, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $98.06 to $103.09. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.5) is in line with its historical norms (12.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 69.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBI is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $95.16. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $107.69 (+12.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBI is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $95.16. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $107.69 (+12.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$98.06 -
$103.09
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($107.69)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$98.06 -
$103.09
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$95.16
Resistance Level
$103.29
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.49
Wall Street Target
$107.69
(+12.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
69.6%
Profit Margin
28.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.5 vs 12.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$94.06
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$92.18
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$90.34
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$95.95
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 9.7%)
$243.26
(+153%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.5, Growth: 9.7%)
$126.60
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.8, Growth: 9.7%)
$107.61
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.91 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.52
Bull Case
$118.70
(+24%)
Analyst growth 11.1%, PE expands to 14.2
Base Case
$107.90
(+12%)
Market implied 11.1%, PE stable at 12.9
Bear Case
$66.03
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.5 to 12.2
Stabilization Target:
$101.94
(+6.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 10:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:26 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TCBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
7
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Paola M Arbour
BUY
1000 shares
2026-03-11
Robert W Stallings
BUY
5500 shares
2026-03-06
Robert W Stallings
BUY
20000 shares
2026-03-05
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