TCBK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TCBK - Trico Bancshares
$54.54
-0.42 (-0.76%)
▼
5d:
+1.85%
30d:
+7.64%
90d:
+13.84%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
18d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TCBK is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: TCBK is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$61.09
Based on 3.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$37.93
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TCBK is currently trading at $54.54, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $50.40 to $53.31. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.5) is in line with its historical norms (11.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBK is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $52.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TCBK has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBK is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $52.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TCBK has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$50.40 -
$53.31
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($56.17)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$50.40 -
$53.31
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$49.18
Resistance Level
$52.00
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.54
Wall Street Target
$56.17
(+3.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
30.0%
Profit Margin
31.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.9% premium
PE vs Historical
12.5 vs 11.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$55.58
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$56.63
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$57.71
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$54.29
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 3.1%)
$103.73
(+90%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.5, Growth: 3.1%)
$59.74
(+10%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.7, Growth: 3.1%)
$50.78
(-7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.95 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.94
Bull Case
$66.72
(+22%)
Analyst growth 10.4%, PE expands to 15.3
Base Case
$60.66
(+11%)
Market implied 10.4%, PE stable at 14.0
Bear Case
$37.37
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 12:15 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:15 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:15 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TCBK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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