TCBK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TCBK - Trico Bancshares
$48.80
-0.74 (-1.49%)
▼
5d:
-4.22%
30d:
-1.37%
90d:
-2.98%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TCBK shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TCBK shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$60.99
Based on 3.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$37.87
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TCBK is currently trading at $48.80, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $49.50 to $50.70. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.2) is in line with its historical norms (11.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 30.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBK is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $48.62. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.00 (+14.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBK is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $48.62. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.00 (+14.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$49.50 -
$50.70
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($56.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$49.50 -
$50.70
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$48.62
Resistance Level
$51.32
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.24
Wall Street Target
$56.00
(+14.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
30.0%
Profit Margin
31.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.2 vs 11.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$47.97
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$47.15
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$46.35
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$48.66
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 3.1%)
$104.97
(+115%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.2, Growth: 3.1%)
$53.46
(+10%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.6, Growth: 3.1%)
$45.44
(-7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.94
Bull Case
$60.05
(+23%)
Analyst growth 10.2%, PE expands to 13.8
Base Case
$54.59
(+12%)
Market implied 10.2%, PE stable at 12.6
Bear Case
$33.69
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.2 to 11.8
Stabilization Target:
$51.23
(+5.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 3:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:06 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TCBK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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