TD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TD - Toronto Dominion Bank
$93.31
1.76 (1.92%)
▲
5d:
-0.24%
30d:
-5.04%
90d:
-1.33%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Feb 26, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
TD is down 3.2% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $95 2026-03-20 with 274 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.6/10
Get Alerted When TD Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$137.33
Based on 6.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$85.27
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TD is currently trading at $93.31, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $93.09 to $97.24. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.0) is in line with its historical norms (9.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 51.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TD is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $91.05. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TD has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TD is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $91.05. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TD has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$93.09 -
$97.24
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TD? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($96.94)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$93.09 -
$97.24
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$91.05
Resistance Level
$96.03
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.00
Wall Street Target
$96.94
(+3.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
51.3%
Profit Margin
33.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.0 vs 9.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$91.72
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$90.16
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$88.63
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$93.53
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 9.8%)
$306.56
(+229%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.0, Growth: 9.8%)
$123.48
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.7, Growth: 9.8%)
$104.96
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.22 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.00
Bull Case
$116.53
(+25%)
Analyst growth 15.2%, PE expands to 11.2
Base Case
$105.94
(+13%)
Market implied 15.2%, PE stable at 10.2
Bear Case
$62.55
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.0 to 9.5
Stabilization Target:
$98.47
(+5.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 6:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:25 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is TD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Banks - Diversified Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Banks - Diversified by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
BAC
Bank of America Corp |
STRONG BUY
25 analysts |
$62 | 65 BUY |
|
WFC
Wells Fargo & Company |
BUY
24 analysts |
$101 | 62 BUY |
|
JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co |
BUY
25 analysts |
$343 | 62 BUY |
|
C
Citigroup Inc. |
STRONG BUY
22 analysts |
$134 | 60 BUY |
|
RY
Royal Bank of Canada |
STRONG BUY
16 analysts |
$174 | 54 HOLD |
Advanced TD Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TD price and gamma walls.
