TD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TD - Toronto Dominion Bank
$93.49
-1.44 (-1.52%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 26, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$141.83
Based on 7.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$88.07
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TD is currently trading at $93.49, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $93.61 to $95.07. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.4) is in line with its historical norms (9.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TD is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $92.79. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TD is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $92.79. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$93.61 -
$95.07
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($92.75)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$93.61 -
$95.07
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$92.79
Resistance Level
$96.38
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.39
Wall Street Target
$92.75
(-2.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-7.6%
Profit Margin
32.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.4 vs 9.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$94.08
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$93.23
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$92.39
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$95.40
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 11.4%)
$311.64
(+228%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.4, Growth: 11.4%)
$131.27
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.0, Growth: 11.4%)
$111.58
(+18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.43
Bull Case
$126.68
(+33%)
Analyst growth 19.9%, PE expands to 12.5
Base Case
$115.17
(+21%)
Market implied 19.9%, PE stable at 11.4
Bear Case
$65.33
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.4 to 9.7
Stabilization Target:
$98.03
(+3.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.3%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:41 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TD price and gamma walls.
