TFIN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TFIN - Triumph Financial, Inc.
$67.65
-0.75 (-1.10%)
▼
5d:
+0.79%
30d:
+21.52%
90d:
+3.31%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 28, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 21, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TFIN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TFIN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$125.36
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$77.84
13.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TFIN is currently trading at $67.65, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $58.41 to $65.95. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 26.3) compared to its historical average (30.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 531.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFIN is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $69.61. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TFIN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFIN is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $69.61. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TFIN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$58.41 -
$65.95
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($67.80)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$58.41 -
$65.95
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$60.78
Resistance Level
$69.62
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 28, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.27
Wall Street Target
$67.80
(+0.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
531.5%
Profit Margin
7.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
26.3 vs 30.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$64.47
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$61.44
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$58.55
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26→30)
$67.53
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 26.3, Growth: 45.8%)
$209.46
(+210%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.6, Growth: 45.8%)
$164.32
(+143%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.5, Growth: 45.8%)
$139.67
(+107%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 10.55 | Forward EPS (Implied): $6.41
Bull Case
$81.69
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 11.1
Base Case
$67.65
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 10.6
Bear Case
$51.75
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 9.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 26.3 to 30.3
Stabilization Target:
$78.02
(+15.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 29, 2026 7:43 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:43 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:43 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TFIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Adam D Nelson
SELL
3000 shares
2025-12-18
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