TFIN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TFIN - Triumph Financial, Inc.
$75.68
1.04 (1.39%)
▲
5d:
+6.19%
30d:
+17.57%
90d:
+36.48%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 15, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TFIN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TFIN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$127.67
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$79.28
4.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TFIN is currently trading at $75.68, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $64.62 to $72.35. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 28.9) is in line with its historical norms (29.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 531.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFIN is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $74.12. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TFIN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFIN is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $74.12. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TFIN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$64.62 -
$72.35
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($68.80)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$64.62 -
$72.35
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$67.94
Resistance Level
$74.13
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
28.86
Wall Street Target
$68.80
(-9.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
531.5%
Profit Margin
7.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
28.9 vs 29.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$75.38
(0%)
2-Year Target
$75.08
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$74.78
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 29→29)
$75.66
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 28.9, Growth: 50.3%)
$255.42
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.9, Growth: 50.3%)
$194.01
(+156%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.6, Growth: 50.3%)
$164.91
(+118%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 10.55 | Forward EPS (Implied): $7.17
Bull Case
$91.38
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 11.1
Base Case
$75.68
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 10.6
Bear Case
$57.90
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 9.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 28.9 to 29.2
Stabilization Target:
$76.58
(+1.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 15, 2026 7:53 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:53 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:53 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TFIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Adam D Nelson
SELL
3000 shares
2025-12-18
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