THR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
THR - THERMON GROUP HOLDINGS, INC.
$45.25
-0.33 (-0.72%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 05, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: THR is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: THR is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$51.58
Based on 5.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.02
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: THR is currently trading at $45.25, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.85 to $43.00. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 20.7) compared to its historical average (18.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, THR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $45.66. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: THR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (4th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $37.00. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, THR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $45.66. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: THR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (4th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $37.00. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$37.85 -
$43.00
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
4th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.5%
Protect Your Profits
THR is technically overbought (RSI 74). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.2% above fair value)
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 4th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 18.8% above Wall St target ($37.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$37.85 -
$43.00
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.14
(4.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$40.01
Resistance Level
$45.66
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.69
Wall Street Target
$37.00
(-18.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
60.7%
Profit Margin
11.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.1% premium
PE vs Historical
20.7 vs 18.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$47.45
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$49.39
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$51.42
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→18)
PE COMPRESSION
$45.49
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 6.1%)
$58.61
(+29%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 6.1%)
$54.37
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 6.1%)
$46.22
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.82 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.75
Bull Case
$60.15
(+33%)
Analyst growth 25.9%, PE expands to 27.3
Base Case
$54.68
(+21%)
Market implied 25.9%, PE stable at 24.8
Bear Case
$29.53
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 3:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:14 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:14 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is THR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2025-09-22
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2025-09-05
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Advanced THR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's THR price and gamma walls.
