TLN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TLN - Talen Energy Corporation Common Stock
$348.36
-13.84 (-3.82%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 26, 2026
25d
Smart Money Accumulation
TLN is down 4.9% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $420 2026-03-20 with 4,460 OI. Call ratio: 72% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.7/10
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1 traders called TLN this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TLN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TLN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$788.68
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$489.71
28.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TLN is currently trading at $348.36, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $363.94 to $390.81. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.1) compared to its historical average (18.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 34.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TLN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $346.38. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $472.77 (+30.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TLN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $346.38. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $472.77 (+30.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$363.94 -
$390.81
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 30.5% below Wall St target ($472.77)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$363.94 -
$390.81
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$346.38
Resistance Level
$396.42
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.10
Wall Street Target
$472.77
(+30.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
38.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
34.5%
Profit Margin
9.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.1 vs 18.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$348.80
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$335.89
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$323.47
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→18)
$361.69
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 349.4%)
$1693.41
(+368%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.1, Growth: 349.4%)
$1222.43
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.7, Growth: 349.4%)
$1039.06
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 19.16 | Forward EPS (Implied): $18.18
Bull Case
$420.64
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 20.1
Base Case
$348.36
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 19.2
Bear Case
$266.50
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 17.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.1 to 18.0
Stabilization Target:
$405.00
(+11.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.8%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 9:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:42 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TLN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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Advanced TLN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TLN price and gamma walls.