TAC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TAC - TransAlta Corporation
$13.47
-0.13 (-0.96%)
▼
5d:
-2.46%
30d:
-6.07%
90d:
+1.35%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 07, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TAC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 11.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TAC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 11.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.14
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.47
22.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TAC is currently trading at $13.47, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.03 to $14.13. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 23.3) compared to its historical average (33.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TAC is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $12.34, while resistance sits at $14.77.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TAC is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $12.34, while resistance sits at $14.77.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$13.03 -
$14.13
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($13.02)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.03 -
$14.13
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.34
Resistance Level
$14.77
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.30
Wall Street Target
$13.02
(-3.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-25.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-71.6%
Profit Margin
-7.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.3 vs 33.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.12
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$10.91
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$9.82
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→34)
$14.12
(+5%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.3, Growth: 107.9%)
$45.46
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 107.9%)
$42.49
(+215%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 107.9%)
$36.11
(+168%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.3 to 33.5
Stabilization Target:
$19.36
(+43.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+43.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 6:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:07 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TAC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced TAC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TAC price and gamma walls.
