TAC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TAC - TransAlta Corporation
$12.78
-0.17 (-1.31%)
▼
5d:
+0.16%
30d:
-5.33%
90d:
-5.89%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
TAC is down 3.7% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $14 2026-06-18 with 298 OI. Call ratio: 99% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TAC trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -11.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TAC trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -11.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.59
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.27
16.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TAC is currently trading at $12.78, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.30 to $13.34. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 25.3) compared to its historical average (35.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TAC is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $12.29, while resistance sits at $13.19.
Market Sentiment: TAC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TAC is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $12.29, while resistance sits at $13.19.
Market Sentiment: TAC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$12.30 -
$13.34
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
82.7%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($13.46)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.30 -
$13.34
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.71
(5.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.29
Resistance Level
$13.19
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.31
Wall Street Target
$13.46
(+5.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-25.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-71.6%
Profit Margin
-7.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
25.3 vs 35.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.50
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$10.35
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$9.32
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→36)
$13.22
(+3%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.3, Growth: 114.0%)
$43.13
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 114.0%)
$37.62
(+194%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 114.0%)
$31.97
(+150%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 25.3 to 35.9
Stabilization Target:
$18.13
(+41.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+41.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 7:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TAC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced TAC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TAC price and gamma walls.
