TM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TM - Toyota Motor Corporation American Depositary Shares (Each representing ten Ordinary Shares)
$187.37
-3.31 (-1.74%)
▼
5d:
+1.94%
30d:
-13.73%
90d:
-23.68%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TM appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.0% annual earnings decline despite 23% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TM appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.0% annual earnings decline despite 23% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$377.71
Based on 11.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$234.53
20.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TM is currently trading at $187.37, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $186.50 to $208.08. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.6) compared to its historical average (10.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 23.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TM is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $179.76, while resistance sits at $195.82.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $256.52 (+34.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TM is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $179.76, while resistance sits at $195.82.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $256.52 (+34.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$186.50 -
$208.08
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 34.5% below Wall St target ($256.52)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$186.50 -
$208.08
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$179.76
Resistance Level
$195.82
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.61
Wall Street Target
$256.52
(+34.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.2%
Profit Margin
7.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.6 vs 10.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$181.15
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$172.09
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$163.48
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$189.80
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 18.8%)
$818.22
(+329%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.6, Growth: 18.8%)
$319.33
(+68%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.3, Growth: 18.8%)
$271.43
(+42%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $18.73
Bull Case
$250.02
(+31%)
Analyst growth 18.2%, PE expands to 11.3
Base Case
$227.29
(+19%)
Market implied 18.2%, PE stable at 10.3
Bear Case
$130.76
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.6 to 10.0
Stabilization Target:
$221.38
(+16.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 4:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:22 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:22 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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