TM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TM - Toyota Motor Corporation American Depositary Shares (Each representing ten Ordinary Shares)
$174.59
4.93 (2.91%)
▲
5d:
+4.86%
30d:
-3.27%
90d:
-16.73%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TM appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.1% annual earnings decline despite 23% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TM appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.1% annual earnings decline despite 23% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$358.82
Based on 11.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$222.80
21.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TM is currently trading at $174.59, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $169.46 to $183.90. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.9) compared to its historical average (9.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 23.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $175.18. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $256.52 (+46.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $175.18. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $256.52 (+46.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$169.46 -
$183.90
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 46.9% below Wall St target ($256.52)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$169.46 -
$183.90
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$175.18
Resistance Level
$192.68
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.89
Wall Street Target
$256.52
(+46.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.2%
Profit Margin
7.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.9 vs 9.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$163.94
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$153.94
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$144.55
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$174.12
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 18.8%)
$807.46
(+363%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.9, Growth: 18.8%)
$292.38
(+68%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.7, Growth: 18.8%)
$248.53
(+42%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $18.26
Bull Case
$226.26
(+30%)
Analyst growth 21.2%, PE expands to 10.2
Base Case
$205.69
(+18%)
Market implied 21.2%, PE stable at 9.3
Bear Case
$115.37
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.9 to 9.5
Stabilization Target:
$210.31
(+20.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 6:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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