TMP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TMP - Tompkins Financial Corporation
$78.84
1.88 (2.44%)
▲
5d:
+3.51%
30d:
+0.52%
90d:
+6.77%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 24, 2026
23d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TMP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TMP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$110.66
Based on 6.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$68.71
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TMP is currently trading at $78.84, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $74.31 to $79.11. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.6) is in line with its historical norms (10.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 386.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMP is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $78.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TMP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMP is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $78.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TMP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$74.31 -
$79.11
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($84.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$74.31 -
$79.11
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.03
(3.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$72.72
Resistance Level
$78.20
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.57
Wall Street Target
$84.50
(+9.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
156.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
386.6%
Profit Margin
37.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.6 vs 10.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$75.96
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$74.97
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$74.00
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$77.35
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 9.2%)
$234.35
(+205%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.6, Growth: 9.2%)
$100.31
(+30%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.1, Growth: 9.2%)
$85.26
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.58 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.24
Bull Case
$58.21
(-23%)
Analyst growth -28.4%, PE expands to 7.2
Base Case
$52.92
(-30%)
Market implied -28.4%, PE stable at 6.6
Bear Case
$50.27
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.6 to 10.0
Stabilization Target:
$80.45
(+4.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 4:16 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:16 PM
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