TMP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TMP - Tompkins Financial Corporation
$94.54
-1.38 (-1.44%)
▼
5d:
+1.33%
30d:
+9.82%
90d:
+19.55%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 24, 2026
19d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TMP is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: TMP is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$111.98
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$69.53
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TMP is currently trading at $94.54, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $86.59 to $93.11. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.6) compared to its historical average (10.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMP is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $90.25. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TMP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMP is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $90.25. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TMP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$86.59 -
$93.11
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($88.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$86.59 -
$93.11
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$83.42
Resistance Level
$90.25
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.60
Wall Street Target
$88.50
(-6.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.8%
Profit Margin
38.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.2% premium
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 10.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$98.51
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$102.65
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$106.96
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$94.05
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 8.3%)
$225.51
(+139%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: 8.3%)
$120.11
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.9, Growth: 8.3%)
$102.09
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.21 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.69
Bull Case
$73.56
(-22%)
Analyst growth -30.3%, PE expands to 9.0
Base Case
$66.87
(-29%)
Market implied -30.3%, PE stable at 8.2
Bear Case
$65.23
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 4:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:52 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:52 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TMP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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