TOUR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TOUR - Tuniu Corporation
$0.67
0.01 (0.80%)
ā²
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 13, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
ā BUY SIGNAL: TOUR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
ā BUY SIGNAL: TOUR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$1.32
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$0.82
18.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TOUR is currently trading at $0.67, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $0.66 to $0.72. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 2.0) is in line with its historical norms (2.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOUR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $0.66. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1.76 (+163.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOUR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $0.66. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1.76 (+163.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$0.66 -
$0.72
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 163.2% below Wall St target ($1.76)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$0.66 -
$0.72
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$0.66
Resistance Level
$0.71
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.96
Wall Street Target
$1.76
(+163.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-51.5%
Profit Margin
1.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
2.0 vs 2.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$0.66
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$0.66
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$0.65
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2ā2)
$0.67
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 30.8%)
$16.96
(+2441%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 2.0, Growth: 30.8%)
$1.49
(+124%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.7, Growth: 30.8%)
$1.27
(+90%)
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Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.07
Bull Case
$1.47
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 10.5
Base Case
$1.34
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 9.6
Bear Case
$0.46
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 2.0 to 2.0
Stabilization Target:
$0.68
(+1.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.9%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 11:33 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:33 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TOUR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TOUR price and gamma walls.
