TRAK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TRAK - ReposiTrak, Inc.
$7.50
-0.10 (-1.32%)
▼
5d:
-0.4%
30d:
-12.18%
90d:
-38.88%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TRAK trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -10.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TRAK trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -10.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$16.97
Based on 10.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.54
28.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TRAK is currently trading at $7.50, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.64 to $8.62. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.9) compared to its historical average (24.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 12.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRAK is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $6.94, while resistance sits at $8.21.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.00 (+113.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRAK is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $6.94, while resistance sits at $8.21.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.00 (+113.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$7.64 -
$8.62
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
40th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 40th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 113.3% below Wall St target ($16.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$7.64 -
$8.62
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.15
(15.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.94
Resistance Level
$8.21
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.86
Wall Street Target
$16.00
(+113.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
12.6%
Profit Margin
30.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.9 vs 24.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.75
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$6.08
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$5.47
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→25)
$7.59
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 16.7%)
$14.91
(+99%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.9, Growth: 16.7%)
$11.91
(+59%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.2, Growth: 16.7%)
$10.12
(+35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.73 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.37
Bull Case
$10.04
(+24%)
Analyst growth 13.5%, PE expands to 23.9
Base Case
$9.13
(+13%)
Market implied 13.5%, PE stable at 21.7
Bear Case
$5.47
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.9 to 24.8
Stabilization Target:
$10.42
(+38.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+38.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 6:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TRAK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
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2026-03-17
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SELL
6072 shares
2026-03-16
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2026-03-12
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