TRAK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TRAK - ReposiTrak, Inc.
$7.44
0.29 (4.06%)
▲
5d:
-7.81%
30d:
-14.48%
90d:
-43.29%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TRAK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TRAK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.11
Based on 10.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.62
30.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TRAK is currently trading at $7.44, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.72 to $8.73. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.7) compared to its historical average (25.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 12.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRAK is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $6.94, while resistance sits at $8.25. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.00 (+115.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRAK is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $6.94, while resistance sits at $8.25. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.00 (+115.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$7.72 -
$8.73
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
40th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 40th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 115.1% below Wall St target ($16.00)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.8% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$7.72 -
$8.73
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.14
(15.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.94
Resistance Level
$8.25
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.71
Wall Street Target
$16.00
(+115.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
12.6%
Profit Margin
30.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.7 vs 25.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.70
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$6.03
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$5.42
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→25)
$7.65
(+3%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 16.7%)
$14.91
(+100%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.7, Growth: 16.7%)
$11.81
(+59%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.1, Growth: 16.7%)
$10.04
(+35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.73 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.37
Bull Case
$10.04
(+24%)
Analyst growth 13.5%, PE expands to 23.9
Base Case
$9.13
(+13%)
Market implied 13.5%, PE stable at 21.7
Bear Case
$5.47
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.7 to 25.0
Stabilization Target:
$10.50
(+41.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+41.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 8:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:50 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:50 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TRAK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Randall K Fields
SELL
1428 shares
2026-03-17
Randall K Fields
SELL
6072 shares
2026-03-16
Randall K Fields
SELL
4000 shares
2026-03-12
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