TSCO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TSCO - Tractor Supply Co
$50.88
-0.08 (-0.16%)
▼
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Jan 29, 2026
0d
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1 traders called TSCO this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TSCO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TSCO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$72.79
Based on 7.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$45.20
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TSCO is currently trading at $50.88, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $50.03 to $53.41. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.1) is in line with its historical norms (22.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 8.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TSCO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $50.17. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.63 (+19.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TSCO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $50.17. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.63 (+19.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$50.03 -
$53.41
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TSCO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($60.63)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.0% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$50.03 -
$53.41
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$50.18
Resistance Level
$56.28
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.07
Wall Street Target
$60.63
(+19.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.8%
Profit Margin
7.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.1 vs 22.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$50.71
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$50.45
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$50.20
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→22)
$50.94
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 10.2%)
$68.86
(+35%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 10.2%)
$68.16
(+34%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 10.2%)
$57.94
(+14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.92 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.07
Bull Case
$68.37
(+34%)
Analyst growth 11.5%, PE expands to 29.6
Base Case
$62.15
(+22%)
Market implied 11.5%, PE stable at 26.9
Bear Case
$37.90
(-26%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.1 to 22.4
Stabilization Target:
$51.71
(+1.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.5%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 4:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:12 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TSCO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced TSCO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TSCO price and gamma walls.
