Is TSCO stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, TSCO is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: TSCO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of TSCO stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for TSCO to be between $46.33 and $51.93. The current price is $45.59.

What is the analyst price target for TSCO?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for TSCO is $57.59. This implies a potential upside of 28.4% from current levels.

TSCO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

TSCO - Tractor Supply Co

RETAIL-BUILDING MATERIALS, HARDWARE, GARDEN SUPPLY

$45.60

0.73 (1.62%) ▲

5d: -0.16%

30d: -12.05%

90d: -11.28%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your TSCO Gains

Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Apr 23, 2026 23d

Smart Money Accumulation

TSCO is down 5.7% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $55 2026-04-17 with 1,557 OI. Call ratio: 68% View Scanner →

Strength: 4.7/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TSCO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 10.1%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$73.71

Based on 7.0% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$45.77

0.4% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.8x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: TSCO is currently trading at $45.59, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $46.33 to $51.93. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.6) compared to its historical average (21.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, TSCO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $44.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: TSCO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $57.59 (+28.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Fair Price Range $46.33 - $51.93

Company Quality Score 58/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 57.1%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 28.4% below Wall St target ($57.59)

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $46.33 - $51.93

Current vs Fair Value OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $44.44

Resistance Level $49.06

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Mar 30, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 18.64

Wall Street Target $57.59 (+28.4%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 3.3%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -2.2%

Profit Margin 7.1%

Valuation Discount vs History -5.0% cheaper

PE vs Historical 18.6 vs 21.8 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -5.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $42.63 (-5%)

2-Year Target $40.50 (-10%)

3-Year Target $38.47 (-14%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 19→22) $45.00 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 22.4, Growth: 10.1%) $71.94 (+60%)

Base: (SPY PE: 18.6, Growth: 10.1%) $59.85 (+33%)

Bear: (PE: 15.8, Growth: 10.1%) $50.88 (+13%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 22.22 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.06

Bull Case $58.84 (+29%)

Analyst growth 16.9%, PE expands to 24.4

Base Case $53.50 (+17%)

Market implied 16.9%, PE stable at 22.2

Bear Case $31.12 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.9

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.6 to 21.8

Stabilization Target: $52.49 (+17.0%)

PE Expansion Potential: +17.0%

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Last updated: March 30, 2026 12:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:04 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Colin Yankee SELL 11170 shares 2026-02-13

Jonathan S Estep SELL 59745 shares 2026-02-11

Robert D Mills SELL 62950 shares 2026-02-11

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Advanced TSCO Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TSCO price and gamma walls.

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