ULTA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ULTA - Ulta Beauty, Inc. Common Stock
$454.03
-7.30 (-1.58%)
▼
5d:
-7.05%
30d:
-3.65%
90d:
-15.51%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.5/10
Get Alerted When ULTA Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ULTA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ULTA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$847.47
Based on 7.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$526.21
13.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ULTA is currently trading at $454.03, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $454.66 to $490.01. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.1) compared to its historical average (20.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 15.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ULTA is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $458.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $627.25 (+36.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ULTA is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $458.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $627.25 (+36.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$454.66 -
$490.01
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ULTA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 36.0% below Wall St target ($627.25)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.0% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$454.66 -
$490.01
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$26.38
(5.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$458.70
Resistance Level
$527.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.15
Wall Street Target
$627.25
(+36.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15.5%
Profit Margin
9.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.2 vs 20.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$425.81
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$393.02
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$362.76
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→21)
$460.57
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 11.4%)
$859.19
(+86%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.1, Growth: 11.4%)
$636.96
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.7, Growth: 11.4%)
$541.42
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.03 | Current EPS (TTM): $26.70
Bull Case
$535.32
(+16%)
Analyst growth 7.0%, PE expands to 18.7
Base Case
$486.66
(+6%)
Market implied 7.0%, PE stable at 17.0
Bear Case
$309.25
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.1 to 20.5
Stabilization Target:
$585.72
(+27.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 06, 2026 11:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:01 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:01 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is ULTA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
2
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
George R Mrkonic Jr
SELL
452 shares
2026-04-07
Maria Elvira Salazar
BUY
2026-03-19
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-24
Top Rated Specialty Retail Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Specialty Retail by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
TSCO
Tractor Supply Company |
BUY
30 analysts |
$45 | 58 HOLD |
|
DKS
Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc |
BUY
26 analysts |
$250 | 59 HOLD |
|
BBY
Best Buy Co. Inc |
HOLD
29 analysts |
$79 | 59 HOLD |
|
MNSO
Miniso Group Holding Ltd |
STRONG BUY
18 analysts |
$20 | 62 BUY |
|
FIVE
Five Below Inc |
BUY
25 analysts |
$261 | 48 HOLD |
Advanced ULTA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ULTA price and gamma walls.
