ULTA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ULTA - Ulta Beauty, Inc. Common Stock
$494.28
-4.00 (-0.80%)
▼
5d:
-5.23%
30d:
-8.37%
90d:
-27.67%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 02, 2026
14d
Smart Money Accumulation
ULTA is down 7.0% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $560 2026-06-18 with 578 OI. Call ratio: 60% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.5/10
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2 traders called ULTA this week
67% bullish • 1 bearish
67% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ULTA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ULTA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$892.94
Based on 7.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$554.45
10.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ULTA is currently trading at $494.28, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $520.20 to $554.27. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.3) compared to its historical average (21.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ULTA is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $487.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ULTA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $681.50 (+37.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ULTA is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $487.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ULTA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $681.50 (+37.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$520.20 -
$554.27
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ULTA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 37.9% below Wall St target ($681.50)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-5.2%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$520.20 -
$554.27
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$487.44
Resistance Level
$543.21
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.30
Wall Street Target
$681.50
(+37.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-5.4%
Profit Margin
9.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.3 vs 21.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$458.69
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$425.67
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$395.02
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→22)
$493.21
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 11.4%)
$870.63
(+76%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.3, Growth: 11.4%)
$682.45
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.7, Growth: 11.4%)
$580.09
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $25.66
Bull Case
$610.30
(+24%)
Analyst growth 11.3%, PE expands to 21.4
Base Case
$554.82
(+12%)
Market implied 11.3%, PE stable at 19.4
Bear Case
$338.83
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.3 to 21.6
Stabilization Target:
$617.14
(+24.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+24.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 4:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:11 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ULTA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
3
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
George R Mrkonic Jr
SELL
452 shares
2026-04-07
Maria Elvira Salazar
BUY
2026-03-19
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-24
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Advanced ULTA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ULTA price and gamma walls.
