TSLA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TSLA - Tesla, Inc. Common Stock
$361.83
-10.28 (-2.76%)
▼
5d:
-1.67%
30d:
-11.44%
90d:
-24.9%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 28, 2026
28d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TSLA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TSLA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$136.82
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$84.96
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TSLA is currently trading at $361.83, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $382.71 to $410.30. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 128.8) compared to its historical average (171.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TSLA is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $361.37. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TSLA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $421.27 (+16.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TSLA is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $361.37. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TSLA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $421.27 (+16.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$382.71 -
$410.30
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TSLA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($421.27)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$382.71 -
$410.30
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$361.37
Resistance Level
$403.73
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
128.75
Wall Street Target
$421.27
(+16.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-60.6%
Profit Margin
4.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
128.8 vs 171.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$328.90
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$298.97
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$271.77
(-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 129→171)
$361.38
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 128.7, Growth: 35.1%)
$892.01
(+147%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 35.1%)
$155.20
(-57%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 35.1%)
$131.92
(-64%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (175x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (129x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 175.44 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.17
Bull Case
$459.88
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 184.2
Base Case
$380.85
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 175.4
Bear Case
$291.35
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 157.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 128.7 to 171.2
Stabilization Target:
$481.14
(+33.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+33.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 8:26 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:26 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:26 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TSLA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
6
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Vaibhav Taneja
SELL
2264 shares
2026-03-06
Kathleen Wilson-Thompson
SELL
25731 shares
2026-02-25
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-24
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