TSM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TSM - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
$330.56
-8.99 (-2.65%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 16, 2026
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8 traders called TSM this week
89% bullish • 1 bearish
89% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TSM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TSM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$757.06
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$470.08
29.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TSM is currently trading at $330.56, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $307.10 to $337.25. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.9) compared to its historical average (21.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 40.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TSM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $325.68. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $419.81 (+23.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TSM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $325.68. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $419.81 (+23.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$307.10 -
$337.25
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.6% below Wall St target ($419.81)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$307.10 -
$337.25
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$325.68
Resistance Level
$349.85
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.87
Wall Street Target
$419.81
(+23.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
40.6%
Profit Margin
45.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.9 vs 21.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$324.61
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$310.33
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$296.67
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→22)
$339.67
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 25.8%)
$798.67
(+135%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.9, Growth: 25.8%)
$675.67
(+99%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.0, Growth: 25.8%)
$574.32
(+69%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.65
Bull Case
$636.33
(+93%)
Analyst growth 69.0%, PE expands to 35.4
Base Case
$578.48
(+75%)
Market implied 69.0%, PE stable at 32.1
Bear Case
$232.76
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.9 to 21.6
Stabilization Target:
$388.76
(+14.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.5%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 9:28 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:28 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:28 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TSM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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