TSM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TSM - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
$341.49
3.54 (1.05%)
▲
5d:
-1.8%
30d:
-3.3%
90d:
+13.99%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 16, 2026
13d
NEW THESIS The Datacenter CPU Renaissance (2026)
See why TSM plays a critical role in the upcoming CPU supercycle alongside GPUs. Read Deep Dive →
Smart Money Distribution
TSM is up 11.3% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $320 2026-03-20 with 18,824 OI. Put ratio: 60% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TSM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TSM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$681.04
Based on 13.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$422.87
19.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TSM is currently trading at $341.49, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $331.11 to $366.38. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.0) is in line with its historical norms (20.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 35.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TSM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $350.44. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $430.65 (+26.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TSM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $350.44. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $430.65 (+26.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$331.11 -
$366.38
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.1% below Wall St target ($430.65)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$331.11 -
$366.38
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$313.80
Resistance Level
$350.45
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.02
Wall Street Target
$430.65
(+26.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
35.0%
Profit Margin
45.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.0 vs 20.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$335.34
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$329.31
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$323.38
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→20)
$341.78
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 23.5%)
$756.18
(+121%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.0, Growth: 23.5%)
$643.43
(+88%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.2, Growth: 23.5%)
$546.92
(+60%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.84 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.34
Bull Case
$628.93
(+86%)
Analyst growth 73.7%, PE expands to 35.0
Base Case
$571.76
(+69%)
Market implied 73.7%, PE stable at 31.8
Bear Case
$223.88
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.0 to 20.1
Stabilization Target:
$360.92
(+5.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 9:34 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:34 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:34 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TSM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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TSM is a key holding in these high-performance investment strategies.
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Advanced TSM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TSM price and gamma walls.
