UBCP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UBCP - United Bancorp Inc/OH
$15.51
0.26 (1.70%)
▲
5d:
-3.06%
30d:
-2.45%
90d:
+4.73%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 08, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: UBCP shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: UBCP shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.49
Based on 11.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.83
2.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UBCP is currently trading at $15.51, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.57 to $16.25. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.7) is in line with its historical norms (9.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UBCP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.11. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.00 (+28.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UBCP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.11. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.00 (+28.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$15.57 -
$16.25
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.9% below Wall St target ($20.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$15.57 -
$16.25
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.11
Resistance Level
$16.35
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.69
Wall Street Target
$20.00
(+28.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.8%
Profit Margin
24.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.1% premium
PE vs Historical
9.7 vs 9.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.68
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$15.85
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$16.03
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$15.54
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 18.5%)
$58.79
(+279%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.7, Growth: 18.5%)
$25.82
(+67%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: 18.5%)
$21.95
(+42%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.35
Bull Case
$19.88
(+28%)
Analyst growth 18.5%, PE expands to 12.4
Base Case
$18.07
(+17%)
Market implied 18.5%, PE stable at 11.3
Bear Case
$10.37
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 10:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:26 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UBCP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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