UBCP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UBCP - United Bancorp Inc/OH
$16.28
0.28 (1.75%)
▲
5d:
+3.23%
30d:
+1.43%
90d:
+7.03%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UBCP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UBCP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.77
Based on 11.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.00
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UBCP is currently trading at $16.28, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.45 to $16.21. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.2) is in line with its historical norms (9.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UBCP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $16.34. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UBCP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.00 (+22.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UBCP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $16.34. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UBCP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.00 (+22.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$15.45 -
$16.21
Company Quality Score
67/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.9% below Wall St target ($20.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$15.45 -
$16.21
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.70
Resistance Level
$16.34
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.18
Wall Street Target
$20.00
(+22.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.7%
Profit Margin
24.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.4% premium
PE vs Historical
10.2 vs 9.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.67
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$17.07
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$17.48
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$16.32
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 18.5%)
$58.01
(+256%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.2, Growth: 18.5%)
$27.10
(+67%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: 18.5%)
$23.04
(+42%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.85 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.35
Bull Case
$20.86
(+28%)
Analyst growth 18.5%, PE expands to 13.0
Base Case
$18.96
(+17%)
Market implied 18.5%, PE stable at 11.9
Bear Case
$10.88
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 4:54 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:54 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:54 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UBCP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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