UBS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UBS - UBS Group AG
$47.15
-1.01 (-2.10%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UBS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UBS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$57.26
Based on 4.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$35.55
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UBS is currently trading at $47.15, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $46.74 to $48.00. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.1) is in line with its historical norms (14.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UBS is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $46.37. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UBS is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $46.37. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$46.74 -
$48.00
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($49.31)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$46.74 -
$48.00
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$46.37
Resistance Level
$49.36
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.10
Wall Street Target
$49.32
(+2.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
76.7%
Profit Margin
15.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.8% premium
PE vs Historical
15.1 vs 14.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$49.03
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$49.91
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$50.81
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$48.13
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 5.3%)
$83.13
(+73%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.1, Growth: 5.3%)
$56.27
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.8, Growth: 5.3%)
$47.83
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.60 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.22
Bull Case
$75.81
(+61%)
Analyst growth 43.7%, PE expands to 23.8
Base Case
$68.92
(+46%)
Market implied 43.7%, PE stable at 21.6
Bear Case
$32.61
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 11:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UBS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced UBS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's UBS price and gamma walls.
