UBS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UBS - UBS Group AG
$38.33
1.66 (4.51%)
▲
5d:
+3.61%
30d:
-6.25%
90d:
-17.67%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
28d
Smart Money Accumulation
UBS is down 3.9% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $40 2026-04-17 with 2,968 OI. Call ratio: 63% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: UBS appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -10.5% annual earnings decline despite 58% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: UBS appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -10.5% annual earnings decline despite 58% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$100.16
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$62.19
38.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UBS is currently trading at $38.33, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.01 to $40.64. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.1) compared to its historical average (12.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 58.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UBS is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.47. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.30 (+31.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UBS is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.47. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.30 (+31.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$37.01 -
$40.64
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 31.7% below Wall St target ($48.30)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$37.01 -
$40.64
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.30
Resistance Level
$38.47
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.13
Wall Street Target
$48.30
(+31.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
58.0%
Profit Margin
15.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.1 vs 12.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.00
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$29.70
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$26.73
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→13)
$37.49
(+2%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 27.4%)
$185.60
(+406%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.1, Growth: 27.4%)
$75.78
(+107%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.8, Growth: 27.4%)
$64.42
(+76%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.36
Bull Case
$68.14
(+82%)
Analyst growth 68.6%, PE expands to 17.1
Base Case
$61.94
(+65%)
Market implied 68.6%, PE stable at 15.6
Bear Case
$24.98
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.1 to 12.8
Stabilization Target:
$51.43
(+40.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+40.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 12:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:42 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UBS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced UBS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's UBS price and gamma walls.
