UDMY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UDMY - Udemy, Inc. Common Stock
$4.36
-0.27 (-5.83%)
▼
5d:
-6.24%
30d:
-17.11%
90d:
-26.35%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UDMY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: UDMY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.63
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.22
39.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UDMY is currently trading at $4.36, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.66 to $5.00. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.0) compared to its historical average (9.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UDMY is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: UDMY has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.56 (+73.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UDMY is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: UDMY has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.56 (+73.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$4.66 -
$5.00
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 73.4% below Wall St target ($7.56)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-6.2%) - monitor closely
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$4.66 -
$5.00
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.43
Resistance Level
$5.02
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.01
Wall Street Target
$7.56
(+73.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.0%
Profit Margin
0.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.0 vs 9.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.93
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$3.54
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$3.19
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→10)
$4.37
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 25.8%)
$27.73
(+536%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.0, Growth: 25.8%)
$8.68
(+99%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.0, Growth: 25.8%)
$7.37
(+69%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (44x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 44.25 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.11
Bull Case
$5.74
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 46.5
Base Case
$4.75
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 44.3
Bear Case
$3.63
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 39.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.0 to 9.6
Stabilization Target:
$5.97
(+37.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+37.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 8:51 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:51 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:51 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UDMY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Sarah Blanchard
SELL
25000 shares
2026-03-13
Sarah Blanchard
SELL
25000 shares
2025-12-15
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