TAL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TAL - TAL Education Group
$11.01
-0.50 (-4.34%)
▼
5d:
-3.42%
30d:
-6.62%
90d:
-4.09%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
0d
Get Alerted When TAL Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TAL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TAL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.98
Based on 12.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.03
15.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TAL is currently trading at $11.01, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.87 to $11.87. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.0) is in line with its historical norms (15.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 535.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TAL is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.75. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.61 (+41.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TAL is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.75. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.61 (+41.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$10.87 -
$11.87
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 41.7% below Wall St target ($15.61)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.87 -
$11.87
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.75
Resistance Level
$11.60
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.97
Wall Street Target
$15.61
(+41.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
31.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
535.7%
Profit Margin
17.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.0 vs 15.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.70
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$10.40
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$10.11
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→15)
$11.00
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 20.0%)
$29.98
(+172%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.0, Growth: 20.0%)
$19.00
(+73%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.9, Growth: 20.0%)
$16.15
(+47%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 12.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.92
Bull Case
$10.85
(-2%)
Analyst growth -14.3%, PE expands to 13.8
Base Case
$9.86
(-10%)
Market implied -14.3%, PE stable at 12.5
Bear Case
$7.83
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.0 to 15.2
Stabilization Target:
$11.98
(+8.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 6:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:01 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:01 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is TAL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Education & Training Services Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Education & Training Services by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
EDU
New Oriental Education &… |
BUY
23 analysts |
$71 | 56 HOLD |
|
KLC
KinderCare Learning Comp… |
STRONG BUY
8 analysts |
$3 | 64 BUY |
|
UTI
Universal Technical Inst… |
STRONG BUY
6 analysts |
$43 | 61 BUY |
|
LINC
Lincoln Educational Serv… |
STRONG BUY
5 analysts |
$45 | 58 HOLD |
|
COUR
Coursera Inc |
BUY
15 analysts |
$8 | 53 HOLD |
