UGI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UGI - UGI Corporation
$34.58
0.59 (1.74%)
▲
5d:
+6.56%
30d:
-5.98%
90d:
-10.39%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UGI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: UGI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$57.92
Based on 9.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$35.96
3.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UGI is currently trading at $34.58, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.91 to $37.58. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.2) is in line with its historical norms (11.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGI is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $31.65, while resistance sits at $35.70.
Market Sentiment: UGI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.33 (+27.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGI is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $31.65, while resistance sits at $35.70.
Market Sentiment: UGI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.33 (+27.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$33.91 -
$37.58
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.5% below Wall St target ($43.33)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$33.91 -
$37.58
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$31.65
Resistance Level
$35.70
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.18
Wall Street Target
$43.33
(+27.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.4%
Profit Margin
8.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.2 vs 11.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.00
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$32.05
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$31.12
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$33.94
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 14.8%)
$111.46
(+228%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.2, Growth: 14.8%)
$51.39
(+51%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.7, Growth: 14.8%)
$43.68
(+29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.98 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.84
Bull Case
$44.01
(+30%)
Analyst growth 17.6%, PE expands to 13.2
Base Case
$40.01
(+18%)
Market implied 17.6%, PE stable at 12.0
Bear Case
$23.13
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.2 to 11.1
Stabilization Target:
$37.07
(+9.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 2:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:05 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:05 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UGI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jean Felix Tematio
SELL
12840 shares
2026-02-11
Joseph L Hartz
SELL
5000 shares
2025-12-17
Joseph L Hartz
SELL
15000 shares
2025-11-25
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