ULTA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ULTA - Ulta Beauty, Inc. Common Stock
$647.36
16.26 (2.58%)
▲
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 12, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ULTA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ULTA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$976.83
Based on 7.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$606.54
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ULTA is currently trading at $647.36, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $617.88 to $671.44. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.1) is in line with its historical norms (23.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ULTA is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $624.95, while resistance sits at $695.34.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ULTA is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $624.95, while resistance sits at $695.34.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$617.88 -
$671.44
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ULTA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($674.58)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.6% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$617.88 -
$671.44
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$22.54
(3.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$624.95
Resistance Level
$695.34
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.15
Wall Street Target
$674.58
(+6.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.9%
Profit Margin
9.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.2 vs 23.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$617.22
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$603.64
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$590.36
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→24)
$631.54
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 11.4%)
$878.04
(+39%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.2, Growth: 11.4%)
$872.31
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 11.4%)
$741.47
(+18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $26.05
Bull Case
$783.75
(+24%)
Analyst growth 9.4%, PE expands to 27.5
Base Case
$712.50
(+13%)
Market implied 9.4%, PE stable at 25.0
Bear Case
$442.88
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.2 to 23.7
Stabilization Target:
$675.12
(+7.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.0%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 4:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:12 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is ULTA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Val T. Hoyle
SELL
2025-09-23
Mike C Smith
SELL
500 shares
2025-09-04
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Advanced ULTA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ULTA price and gamma walls.
