TSCO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TSCO - Tractor Supply Co
$30.57
0.08 (0.26%)
▲
5d:
-0.26%
30d:
-31.5%
90d:
-44.45%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
TSCO is down 8.2% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $40 2026-07-17 with 8,236 OI. Call ratio: 60% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.1/10
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5 traders called TSCO this week
90% bullish • 1 bearish
90% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TSCO trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -13.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TSCO trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -13.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$62.81
Based on 6.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$39.00
21.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TSCO is currently trading at $30.57, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $31.86 to $43.78. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.2) compared to its historical average (20.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TSCO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $29.42, while resistance sits at $33.97.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.96 (+53.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TSCO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $29.42, while resistance sits at $33.97.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.96 (+53.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$31.86 -
$43.78
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 53.6% below Wall St target ($46.96)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$31.86 -
$43.78
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$29.42
Resistance Level
$33.97
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.24
Wall Street Target
$46.96
(+53.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-8.1%
Profit Margin
6.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.2 vs 20.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$27.51
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$24.76
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$22.29
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→20)
$33.83
(+11%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 8.5%)
$65.14
(+113%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.2, Growth: 8.5%)
$39.07
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.3, Growth: 8.5%)
$33.21
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.03
Bull Case
$38.15
(+25%)
Analyst growth 13.7%, PE expands to 16.5
Base Case
$34.68
(+13%)
Market implied 13.7%, PE stable at 15.0
Bear Case
$20.73
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.2 to 20.1
Stabilization Target:
$46.41
(+51.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+51.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 4:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:11 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TSCO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
8
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
April McClain Delaney
BUY
2026-03-31
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
April McClain Delaney
BUY
2026-03-16
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Advanced TSCO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TSCO price and gamma walls.
