TSCO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TSCO - Tractor Supply Co
$30.10
-1.66 (-5.23%)
▼
5d:
-3.56%
30d:
+3.29%
90d:
-31.31%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
16d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 9.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TSCO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TSCO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$57.69
Based on 6.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$35.82
16.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TSCO is currently trading at $30.10, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.78 to $31.43. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.9) compared to its historical average (18.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TSCO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $28.36, while resistance sits at $31.79. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: TSCO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.78 (+41.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TSCO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $28.36, while resistance sits at $31.79. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: TSCO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.78 (+41.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$29.78 -
$31.43
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TSCO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 41.0% below Wall St target ($44.78)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$29.78 -
$31.43
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$28.36
Resistance Level
$31.79
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.86
Wall Street Target
$44.78
(+41.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-8.1%
Profit Margin
6.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.9 vs 18.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$28.77
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$26.07
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$23.62
(-26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→19)
$31.70
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 8.5%)
$63.73
(+101%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.9, Growth: 8.5%)
$40.55
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.8, Growth: 8.5%)
$34.46
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.03
Bull Case
$40.06
(+26%)
Analyst growth 12.9%, PE expands to 17.5
Base Case
$36.42
(+15%)
Market implied 12.9%, PE stable at 15.9
Bear Case
$21.94
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.9 to 18.6
Stabilization Target:
$42.63
(+34.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+34.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 06, 2026 11:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:01 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:01 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TSCO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
6
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
April McClain Delaney
BUY
2026-03-31
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
April McClain Delaney
BUY
2026-03-16
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Advanced TSCO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TSCO price and gamma walls.
