UMC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UMC - United Microelectronic Corp.
$10.18
-0.40 (-3.78%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
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1 traders called UMC this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UMC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 10.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UMC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 10.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.52
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.71
42.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UMC is currently trading at $10.18, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.87 to $10.61. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.7) compared to its historical average (18.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 18.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $9.15, while resistance sits at $12.68. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: UMC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $7.21. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $9.15, while resistance sits at $12.68. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: UMC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $7.21. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$7.87 -
$10.61
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.8%)
- BEARISH: Trading 31.8% above Wall St target ($7.21)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$7.87 -
$10.61
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.15
Resistance Level
$12.68
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.65
Wall Street Target
$7.21
(-31.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
18.5%
Profit Margin
17.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.7 vs 18.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.52
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$8.57
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$7.71
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→19)
$10.68
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 36.2%)
$43.69
(+313%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.7, Growth: 36.2%)
$26.75
(+153%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.6, Growth: 36.2%)
$22.74
(+115%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.54
Bull Case
$17.97
(+77%)
Analyst growth 43.5%, PE expands to 23.2
Base Case
$16.33
(+60%)
Market implied 43.5%, PE stable at 21.1
Bear Case
$7.74
(-24%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.7 to 18.9
Stabilization Target:
$14.65
(+38.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+38.4%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 10:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced UMC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's UMC price and gamma walls.
