UNP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UNP - Union Pacific Corp.
$239.23
0.44 (0.18%)
▲
5d:
+0.36%
30d:
-9.72%
90d:
+2.48%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
22d
Smart Money Accumulation
UNP is down 4.3% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $240 2026-05-15 with 1,126 OI. Call ratio: 68% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UNP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: UNP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$345.48
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$214.51
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UNP is currently trading at $239.23, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $239.32 to $263.26. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.6) is in line with its historical norms (18.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UNP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $245.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UNP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $272.00 (+13.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UNP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $245.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UNP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $272.00 (+13.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$239.32 -
$263.26
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding UNP? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($272.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$239.32 -
$263.26
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$231.72
Resistance Level
$245.75
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.65
Wall Street Target
$272.00
(+13.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.8%
Profit Margin
29.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.7 vs 18.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$235.88
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$232.58
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$229.32
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→18)
$239.10
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 9.5%)
$397.83
(+66%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.6, Growth: 9.5%)
$314.13
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.0, Growth: 9.5%)
$267.01
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.98
Bull Case
$292.73
(+23%)
Analyst growth 13.3%, PE expands to 21.6
Base Case
$266.12
(+12%)
Market implied 13.3%, PE stable at 19.6
Bear Case
$159.75
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.6 to 18.4
Stabilization Target:
$249.42
(+4.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 8:25 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:25 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:25 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UNP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
John Boozman
SELL
2026-02-19
John Boozman
SELL
2026-01-29
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