UNP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UNP - Union Pacific Corp.
$235.10
1.52 (0.65%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UNP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: UNP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$342.14
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$212.44
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UNP is currently trading at $235.10, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $227.73 to $234.03. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.2) is in line with its historical norms (18.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 9.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UNP is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $236.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UNP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $263.04 (+12.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UNP is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $236.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UNP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $263.04 (+12.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$227.73 -
$234.03
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding UNP? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($263.04)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$227.73 -
$234.03
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$219.98
Resistance Level
$236.88
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.22
Wall Street Target
$263.04
(+12.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.5%
Profit Margin
28.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.2 vs 18.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$228.91
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$224.33
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$219.84
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→18)
$233.57
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 9.3%)
$394.58
(+69%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.2, Growth: 9.3%)
$304.77
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.6, Growth: 9.3%)
$259.06
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.01 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.98
Bull Case
$283.53
(+21%)
Analyst growth 13.2%, PE expands to 20.9
Base Case
$257.76
(+10%)
Market implied 13.2%, PE stable at 19.0
Bear Case
$154.84
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.2 to 18.3
Stabilization Target:
$248.16
(+6.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.2%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 3:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:48 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UNP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
2
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
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BUY
2025-10-14
C. Scott Franklin
BUY
2025-10-14
Ro Khanna
SELL
2025-09-05
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Advanced UNP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's UNP price and gamma walls.
