URBN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
URBN - Urban Outfitters Inc
$70.85
0.88 (1.26%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 25, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: URBN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: URBN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$120.37
Based on 6.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$74.74
5.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: URBN is currently trading at $70.85, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $70.65 to $79.84. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.2) compared to its historical average (15.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 16.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, URBN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $72.86. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: URBN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $85.25 (+21.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, URBN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $72.86. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: URBN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $85.25 (+21.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$70.65 -
$79.84
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding URBN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.8% below Wall St target ($85.25)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$70.65 -
$79.84
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$66.94
Resistance Level
$72.86
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.21
Wall Street Target
$85.25
(+21.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.4%
Profit Margin
8.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.2 vs 15.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$64.93
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$60.26
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$55.92
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→15)
$70.10
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 9.1%)
$166.12
(+137%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.2, Growth: 9.1%)
$90.92
(+30%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.4, Growth: 9.1%)
$77.28
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.18 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.28
Bull Case
$83.14
(+17%)
Analyst growth 8.6%, PE expands to 14.5
Base Case
$75.58
(+7%)
Market implied 8.6%, PE stable at 13.2
Bear Case
$47.33
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.2 to 15.3
Stabilization Target:
$87.71
(+25.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.4%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 4:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:52 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:52 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is URBN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Richard A Hayne
SELL
9333 shares
2025-10-13
Richard A Hayne
SELL
10667 shares
2025-10-13
Richard A Hayne
SELL
10667 shares
2025-10-10
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Advanced URBN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's URBN price and gamma walls.
