URBN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
URBN - Urban Outfitters Inc
$63.35
2.42 (3.97%)
▲
5d:
+2.69%
30d:
-3.56%
90d:
-17.11%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 20, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: URBN trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: URBN trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$106.54
Based on 6.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$66.16
4.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: URBN is currently trading at $63.35, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $62.68 to $67.74. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.6) compared to its historical average (13.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, URBN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $59.97, while resistance sits at $66.00. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $83.25 (+36.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, URBN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $59.97, while resistance sits at $66.00. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $83.25 (+36.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$62.68 -
$67.74
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 36.6% below Wall St target ($83.25)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$62.68 -
$67.74
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$59.97
Resistance Level
$66.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.62
Wall Street Target
$83.25
(+36.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-17.4%
Profit Margin
7.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.6 vs 13.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$56.30
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$52.02
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$48.07
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→14)
$61.11
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 9.2%)
$166.99
(+174%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.6, Growth: 9.2%)
$79.34
(+30%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.0, Growth: 9.2%)
$67.44
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.06
Bull Case
$79.07
(+28%)
Analyst growth 13.4%, PE expands to 13.8
Base Case
$71.88
(+16%)
Market implied 13.4%, PE stable at 12.5
Bear Case
$43.11
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.6 to 13.5
Stabilization Target:
$77.46
(+27.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 4:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:03 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:03 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is URBN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Richard A Hayne
SELL
10667 shares
2026-02-20
Margaret Hayne
SELL
9333 shares
2026-02-20
Margaret Hayne
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2185 shares
2026-02-19
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