USPH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
USPH - US Physical Therapy Inc
$75.68
0.93 (1.24%)
▲
5d:
+0.64%
30d:
-8.78%
90d:
-6.57%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: USPH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: USPH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$130.23
Based on 9.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$80.86
6.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: USPH is currently trading at $75.68, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $75.48 to $83.07. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 22.6) compared to its historical average (26.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 23.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, USPH is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $72.50, while resistance sits at $78.94.
Market Sentiment: USPH has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (17th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $104.00 (+39.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, USPH is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $72.50, while resistance sits at $78.94.
Market Sentiment: USPH has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (17th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $104.00 (+39.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$75.48 -
$83.07
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
17th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 17th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 39.1% below Wall St target ($104.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$75.48 -
$83.07
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$4.30
(5.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$72.50
Resistance Level
$78.94
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.57
Wall Street Target
$104.00
(+39.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.6%
Profit Margin
5.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.6 vs 26.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$71.09
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$67.60
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$64.29
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→26)
$74.63
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.6, Growth: 15.1%)
$114.08
(+53%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 15.1%)
$113.22
(+52%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 15.1%)
$96.24
(+29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 26.39 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.85
Bull Case
$90.80
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 27.7
Base Case
$75.20
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 26.4
Bear Case
$57.53
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 23.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.6 to 26.2
Stabilization Target:
$86.77
(+16.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 11:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:50 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:50 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is USPH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Graham D Reeve
SELL
662 shares
2026-03-11
Richard Binstein
SELL
3000 shares
2026-03-06
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