UWMC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UWMC - UWM Holdings Corporation
$3.69
0.04 (1.24%)
▲
5d:
+4.39%
30d:
-11.84%
90d:
-15.87%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: UWMC appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -13.8% annual earnings decline despite 278% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: UWMC appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -13.8% annual earnings decline despite 278% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.08
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.88
46.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UWMC is currently trading at $3.69, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.54 to $4.23. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.3) compared to its historical average (9.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 277.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UWMC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $3.78. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UWMC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.82 (+87.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UWMC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $3.78. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UWMC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.82 (+87.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$3.54 -
$4.23
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 87.4% below Wall St target ($6.82)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$3.54 -
$4.23
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.38
Resistance Level
$3.78
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.34
Wall Street Target
$6.82
(+87.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
301.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
277.8%
Profit Margin
0.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.3 vs 9.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.28
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$2.95
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$2.65
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→10)
$4.15
(+14%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 30.9%)
$28.80
(+691%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.3, Growth: 30.9%)
$8.16
(+124%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.4, Growth: 30.9%)
$6.94
(+91%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.12
Bull Case
$7.83
(+109%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 32.6
Base Case
$7.12
(+90%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 29.7
Bear Case
$2.42
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.3 to 9.9
Stabilization Target:
$5.69
(+56.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+56.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 2:30 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:30 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:30 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UWMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
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