UWMC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UWMC - UWM Holdings Corporation
$4.91
-0.79 (-13.86%)
▼
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 25, 2026
24d
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2 traders called UWMC this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: UWMC is down 15.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: UWMC is down 15.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.98
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.20
20.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UWMC is currently trading at $4.91, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.57 to $5.75. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 12.8) compared to its historical average (11.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UWMC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 13.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.59 (+15.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UWMC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 13.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.59 (+15.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$4.57 -
$5.75
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding UWMC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-13.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($6.59)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -15.2% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$4.57 -
$5.75
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.81
Resistance Level
$6.15
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.79
Wall Street Target
$6.59
(+15.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-10.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
266.7%
Profit Margin
0.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.5% premium
PE vs Historical
12.8 vs 11.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.90
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$6.11
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$6.32
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$5.68
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 174.0%)
$33.54
(+488%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.8, Growth: 174.0%)
$19.24
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.9, Growth: 174.0%)
$16.35
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 13.14 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.37
Bull Case
$5.93
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 13.8
Base Case
$4.91
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 13.1
Bear Case
$3.76
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 11.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 10:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UWMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
596356 shares
2025-10-22
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SELL
596356 shares
2025-10-20
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