VLY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VLY - Valley National Bancorp
$14.59
-0.21 (-1.42%)
▼
5d:
-1.29%
30d:
+6.03%
90d:
+17.28%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
18d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VLY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VLY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$23.98
Based on 12.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.89
2.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VLY is currently trading at $14.59, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.73 to $14.57. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.5) is in line with its historical norms (8.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $14.23. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: VLY has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.11 (+10.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $14.23. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: VLY has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.11 (+10.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$13.73 -
$14.57
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($16.11)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.73 -
$14.57
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.38
Resistance Level
$14.23
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.48
Wall Street Target
$16.11
(+10.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
23.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
58.1%
Profit Margin
33.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.0% premium
PE vs Historical
9.5 vs 8.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.88
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$15.18
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$15.48
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$14.53
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 20.0%)
$57.85
(+297%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.5, Growth: 20.0%)
$25.18
(+73%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.1, Growth: 20.0%)
$21.41
(+47%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.33 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.11
Bull Case
$22.57
(+55%)
Analyst growth 38.6%, PE expands to 14.7
Base Case
$20.52
(+41%)
Market implied 38.6%, PE stable at 13.3
Bear Case
$10.06
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 8:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Carlos J Vazquez
BUY
2500 shares
2026-02-17
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