VLY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VLY - Valley National Bancorp
$12.93
-0.12 (-0.92%)
▼
5d:
-3.58%
30d:
-1.22%
90d:
-4.15%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: VLY shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: VLY shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$23.01
Based on 11.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.28
9.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VLY is currently trading at $12.93, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.99 to $13.57. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.5) is in line with its historical norms (8.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 58.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.77. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.71 (+21.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.77. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.71 (+21.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$12.99 -
$13.57
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.5% below Wall St target ($15.71)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.99 -
$13.57
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.77
Resistance Level
$13.80
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.46
Wall Street Target
$15.71
(+21.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
23.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
58.1%
Profit Margin
33.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.5 vs 8.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.72
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$12.52
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$12.32
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$12.96
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 18.4%)
$56.05
(+334%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.5, Growth: 18.4%)
$21.49
(+66%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.2, Growth: 18.4%)
$18.26
(+41%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.11
Bull Case
$19.76
(+53%)
Analyst growth 37.7%, PE expands to 12.9
Base Case
$17.97
(+39%)
Market implied 37.7%, PE stable at 11.8
Bear Case
$8.87
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.5 to 8.9
Stabilization Target:
$13.60
(+5.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 2:21 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:21 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:21 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Carlos J Vazquez
BUY
2500 shares
2026-02-17
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