VMC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VMC - Vulcan Materials Company(Holding Company)
$266.94
5.48 (2.10%)
▲
5d:
+1.21%
30d:
-13.89%
90d:
-9.27%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
29d
Smart Money Distribution
VMC is up 3.7% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $240 2026-05-15 with 1,449 OI. Put ratio: 93% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: VMC trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: VMC trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$436.21
Based on 10.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$270.85
1.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VMC is currently trading at $266.94, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $260.96 to $301.00. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 24.6) compared to its historical average (28.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VMC is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $271.86. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $326.43 (+22.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VMC is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $271.86. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $326.43 (+22.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$260.96 -
$301.00
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.3% below Wall St target ($326.43)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$260.96 -
$301.00
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$252.35
Resistance Level
$271.86
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.60
Wall Street Target
$326.43
(+22.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-13.8%
Profit Margin
13.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
24.6 vs 28.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$253.06
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$239.90
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$227.43
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→29)
$267.16
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.6, Growth: 16.1%)
$418.06
(+57%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 16.1%)
$379.79
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 16.1%)
$322.82
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.74 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.14
Bull Case
$378.88
(+44%)
Analyst growth 33.3%, PE expands to 34.9
Base Case
$344.44
(+31%)
Market implied 33.3%, PE stable at 31.7
Bear Case
$175.71
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 24.6 to 28.9
Stabilization Target:
$313.58
(+17.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 6:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:11 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Michael T. McCaul
SELL
2026-02-23
Melissa H Anderson
SELL
1137 shares
2026-02-20
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-29
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Advanced VMC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's VMC price and gamma walls.
