KNF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KNF - Knife River Corporation
$74.51
-1.39 (-1.83%)
▼
5d:
-13.04%
30d:
-16.39%
90d:
-20.71%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: KNF is down 13.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: KNF is down 13.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$161.83
Based on 12.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$100.49
25.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KNF is currently trading at $74.51, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $82.07 to $91.15. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.2) compared to its historical average (21.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 36.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KNF is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $75.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $104.67 (+40.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KNF is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $75.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $104.67 (+40.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$82.07 -
$91.15
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 40.5% below Wall St target ($104.67)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -13.0% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$82.07 -
$91.15
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$75.00
Resistance Level
$92.82
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.18
Wall Street Target
$104.67
(+40.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
36.1%
Profit Margin
4.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.2 vs 21.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$70.19
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$66.12
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$62.28
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→22)
$74.32
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 21.8%)
$163.50
(+119%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.2, Growth: 21.8%)
$134.53
(+81%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.5, Growth: 21.8%)
$114.35
(+54%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.57
Bull Case
$133.11
(+79%)
Analyst growth 59.4%, PE expands to 32.5
Base Case
$121.01
(+62%)
Market implied 59.4%, PE stable at 29.5
Bear Case
$51.61
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.2 to 21.7
Stabilization Target:
$88.92
(+19.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 9:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:08 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KNF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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