VST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VST - Vistra Corp.
$158.35
-4.23 (-2.60%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 26, 2026
25d
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4 traders called VST this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: VST shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: VST shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$322.61
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$200.31
20.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VST is currently trading at $158.35, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $157.45 to $169.07. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.6) is in line with its historical norms (18.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VST is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $153.77. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: VST has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $230.05 (+41.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VST is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $153.77. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: VST has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $230.05 (+41.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$157.45 -
$169.07
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding VST? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 41.5% below Wall St target ($230.05)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$157.45 -
$169.07
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$153.77
Resistance Level
$171.12
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.55
Wall Street Target
$230.05
(+41.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-20.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-66.7%
Profit Margin
6.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.6 vs 18.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$161.60
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$160.63
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$159.67
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→19)
$162.70
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 77.6%)
$659.70
(+306%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.5, Growth: 77.6%)
$548.71
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.8, Growth: 77.6%)
$466.40
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 17.30 | Forward EPS (Implied): $9.15
Bull Case
$191.21
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 18.2
Base Case
$158.35
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 17.3
Bear Case
$121.14
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 15.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.5 to 18.9
Stabilization Target:
$165.66
(+1.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.9%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 7:29 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:29 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:29 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
19612 shares
2025-10-22
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SELL
2005 shares
2025-10-21
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21371 shares
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's VST price and gamma walls.
