VST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VST - Vistra Corp.
$152.84
-2.64 (-1.70%)
▼
5d:
+1.02%
30d:
-12.11%
90d:
-5.46%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
VST is down 4.7% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $170 2026-05-15 with 6,166 OI. Call ratio: 62% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: VST shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: VST shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$352.52
Based on 13.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$218.89
30.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VST is currently trading at $152.84, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $155.74 to $171.82. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.7) compared to its historical average (17.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VST is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $144.83, while resistance sits at $173.00.
Market Sentiment: VST has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $234.26 (+50.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VST is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $144.83, while resistance sits at $173.00.
Market Sentiment: VST has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $234.26 (+50.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$155.74 -
$171.82
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding VST? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 50.7% below Wall St target ($234.26)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$155.74 -
$171.82
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$144.83
Resistance Level
$173.00
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.65
Wall Street Target
$234.26
(+50.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-52.3%
Profit Margin
5.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.7 vs 17.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$145.53
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$136.22
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$127.50
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→18)
$155.82
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 22.7%)
$439.06
(+182%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.6, Growth: 22.7%)
$287.09
(+85%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.4, Growth: 22.7%)
$244.03
(+57%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 15.95 | Forward EPS (Implied): $9.49
Bull Case
$182.68
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 16.8
Base Case
$151.29
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 16.0
Bear Case
$115.74
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 14.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.6 to 17.9
Stabilization Target:
$190.01
(+22.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 10:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:11 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
18
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Stephanie Zapata Moore
SELL
10000 shares
2026-03-09
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-05
Nancy Pelosi
BUY
2026-01-16
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Advanced VST Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's VST price and gamma walls.
