VTEX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VTEX - VTEX
$3.89
0.05 (1.44%)
▲
5d:
+0.13%
30d:
+13.27%
90d:
+4.72%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VTEX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VTEX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.69
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.39
28.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VTEX is currently trading at $3.88, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.20 to $4.00. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.3) compared to its historical average (16.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 54.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VTEX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.65, while resistance sits at $4.09.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.00 (+56.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VTEX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.65, while resistance sits at $4.09.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.00 (+56.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$3.20 -
$4.00
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 56.7% below Wall St target ($6.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$3.20 -
$4.00
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.66
Resistance Level
$4.09
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.34
Wall Street Target
$6.00
(+56.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
54.2%
Profit Margin
8.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.3 vs 16.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.64
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$3.46
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$3.29
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→17)
$3.84
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 40.4%)
$16.54
(+332%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.3, Growth: 40.4%)
$10.59
(+177%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.2, Growth: 40.4%)
$9.00
(+135%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 33.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.11
Bull Case
$8.12
(+109%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 36.9
Base Case
$7.38
(+90%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 33.6
Bear Case
$2.51
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.3 to 16.7
Stabilization Target:
$4.46
(+16.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 2:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:44 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VTEX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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