VTEX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VTEX - VTEX
$3.14
-0.10 (-3.09%)
▼
5d:
-6.55%
30d:
-16.93%
90d:
-28.96%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 24, 2026
21d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: VTEX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: VTEX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VTEX is currently trading at $3.14, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.30 to $3.70. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.7) compared to its historical average (18.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 88.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VTEX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $3.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: VTEX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.69 (+113.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VTEX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $3.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: VTEX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.69 (+113.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$3.30 -
$3.70
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 113.1% below Wall St target ($6.69)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-6.5%) - monitor closely
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$3.30 -
$3.70
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.42
(13.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.13
Resistance Level
$3.44
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.73
Wall Street Target
$6.69
(+113.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
88.9%
Profit Margin
5.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.7 vs 18.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.00
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$2.86
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$2.73
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→18)
$3.14
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 28.2%)
$9.38
(+199%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.7, Growth: 28.2%)
$6.62
(+111%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.4, Growth: 28.2%)
$5.62
(+79%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (49x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 48.71 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.07
Bull Case
$7.50
(+139%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 53.6
Base Case
$6.82
(+117%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 48.7
Bear Case
$2.32
(-26%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 41.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.7 to 18.1
Stabilization Target:
$3.61
(+15.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.1%
Last updated: February 02, 2026 2:34 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:34 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:34 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VTEX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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