YPF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
YPF - YPF Sociedad Anonima
$44.31
-1.91 (-4.13%)
▼
5d:
+2.62%
30d:
+27.81%
90d:
+22.81%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: YPF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: YPF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$97.42
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$60.49
26.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: YPF is currently trading at $44.31, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $35.91 to $42.86. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.3) compared to its historical average (9.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YPF is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $39.70, while resistance sits at $48.95. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: YPF has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.88 (+14.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YPF is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $39.70, while resistance sits at $48.95. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: YPF has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.88 (+14.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$35.91 -
$42.86
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($50.88)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$35.91 -
$42.86
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$39.70
Resistance Level
$48.96
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.33
Wall Street Target
$50.88
(+14.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
36.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-86.0%
Profit Margin
-4.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.3 vs 9.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$42.58
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$40.92
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$39.33
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$44.40
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 45.7%)
$367.96
(+730%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.3, Growth: 45.7%)
$137.07
(+209%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.1, Growth: 45.7%)
$116.51
(+163%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.3 to 9.4
Stabilization Target:
$50.03
(+12.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 6:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:01 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:01 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is YPF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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