YPF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
YPF - YPF Sociedad Anonima
$39.79
0.02 (0.05%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: YPF trades at premium valuation expecting 6.2% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: YPF trades at premium valuation expecting 6.2% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$64.66
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$40.15
0.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: YPF is currently trading at $39.79, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $34.07 to $37.53. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.6) compared to its historical average (9.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YPF is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $40.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: YPF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $47.62 (+19.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YPF is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $40.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: YPF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $47.62 (+19.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$34.07 -
$37.53
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
Protect Your Profits
YPF is technically overbought (RSI 72). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.0% above fair value)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($47.62)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 6.2% growth with 25.3% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$34.07 -
$37.53
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$33.57
Resistance Level
$40.38
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.62
Wall Street Target
$47.62
(+19.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-86.0%
Profit Margin
-2.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.2% premium
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 9.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$42.24
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$44.85
(+13%)
3-Year Target
$47.64
(+20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$39.77
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 201.3%)
$257.62
(+548%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: 201.3%)
$134.22
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.7, Growth: 201.3%)
$112.06
(+182%)
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:42 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is YPF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced YPF Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's YPF price and gamma walls.
