ZUMZ Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ZUMZ - Zumiez Inc.
$21.40
-0.65 (-2.95%)
▼
5d:
-2.55%
30d:
-17.37%
90d:
-17.85%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ZUMZ trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -8.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ZUMZ trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -8.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$52.25
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.44
34.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ZUMZ is currently trading at $21.40, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.26 to $24.96. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 20.5) compared to its historical average (26.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZUMZ is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $20.49, while resistance sits at $22.74.
Market Sentiment: ZUMZ has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZUMZ is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $20.49, while resistance sits at $22.74.
Market Sentiment: ZUMZ has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$21.26 -
$24.96
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
82.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($24.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$21.26 -
$24.96
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.77
(8.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.49
Resistance Level
$22.74
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.54
Wall Street Target
$24.00
(+8.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.2%
Profit Margin
1.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.5 vs 26.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.29
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$18.66
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$17.17
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→26)
$21.98
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 40.3%)
$66.25
(+200%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.5, Growth: 40.3%)
$60.90
(+176%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.5, Growth: 40.3%)
$51.76
(+135%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.74 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.78
Bull Case
$31.57
(+46%)
Analyst growth 37.6%, PE expands to 29.4
Base Case
$28.70
(+33%)
Market implied 37.6%, PE stable at 26.7
Bear Case
$14.18
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.5 to 26.3
Stabilization Target:
$28.23
(+28.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+28.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 10:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:48 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ZUMZ showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Adam Christopher Ellis
SELL
7319 shares
2025-12-22
Travis Smith
SELL
9175 shares
2025-12-19
Chris K Visser
SELL
10043 shares
2025-12-15
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