ZUMZ Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ZUMZ - Zumiez Inc.
$24.61
-0.17 (-0.69%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 12, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ZUMZ shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 11.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ZUMZ shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 11.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$55.50
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$34.46
28.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ZUMZ is currently trading at $24.61, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.76 to $26.95. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.7) compared to its historical average (31.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZUMZ is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $23.71, while resistance sits at $26.21.
Market Sentiment: ZUMZ has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZUMZ is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $23.71, while resistance sits at $26.21.
Market Sentiment: ZUMZ has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$24.76 -
$26.95
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($24.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$24.76 -
$26.95
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.80
(7.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.72
Resistance Level
$26.21
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.74
Wall Street Target
$24.00
(-3.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.2%
Profit Margin
0.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.7 vs 31.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.30
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$20.07
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$18.06
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→32)
$26.26
(+6%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 49.0%)
$84.13
(+240%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.7, Growth: 49.0%)
$82.00
(+231%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 49.0%)
$69.70
(+181%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 16.18 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.53
Bull Case
$29.92
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 17.0
Base Case
$24.78
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 16.2
Bear Case
$18.96
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 14.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.7 to 31.6
Stabilization Target:
$36.02
(+45.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+45.4%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ZUMZ showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Chris K Visser
SELL
5618 shares
2025-09-17
Liliana Gil Valletta
SELL
3655 shares
2025-09-08
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Advanced ZUMZ Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ZUMZ price and gamma walls.
