AA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AA - Alcoa Corporation
$62.59
0.06 (0.10%)
▲
5d:
-4.21%
30d:
-4.62%
90d:
+8.91%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 16, 2026
0d
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2 traders called AA this week
50% bullish • 1 bearish
50% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$72.60
Based on -1.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$45.08
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AA is currently trading at $62.59, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $62.81 to $69.91. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.3) compared to its historical average (11.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AA is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $61.51. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $75.25 (+20.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AA is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $61.51. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $75.25 (+20.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$62.81 -
$69.91
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.2% below Wall St target ($75.25)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$62.81 -
$69.91
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$61.51
Resistance Level
$69.73
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.35
Wall Street Target
$75.25
(+20.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-22.7%
Profit Margin
8.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.4 vs 11.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$57.90
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$53.55
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$49.54
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→12)
$62.54
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: -7.2%)
$118.34
(+89%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.3, Growth: -7.2%)
$50.05
(-20%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.9, Growth: -7.2%)
$42.54
(-32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.03 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.90
Bull Case
$118.11
(+89%)
Analyst growth 71.7%, PE expands to 17.6
Base Case
$107.37
(+72%)
Market implied 71.7%, PE stable at 16.0
Bear Case
$42.52
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.3 to 11.8
Stabilization Target:
$79.02
(+26.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+26.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 19, 2026 3:38 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:38 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:38 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is AA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Michael T. McCaul
SELL
2026-01-13
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