ABM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ABM - ABM Industries, Inc.
$37.88
0.39 (1.04%)
▲
5d:
-0.92%
30d:
-14.88%
90d:
-11.23%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Mar 10, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ABM trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ABM trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$61.81
Based on 6.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.38
1.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ABM is currently trading at $37.88, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.10 to $44.28. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.7) compared to its historical average (10.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABM is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $36.96. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $51.43 (+35.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABM is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $36.96. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $51.43 (+35.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$38.10 -
$44.28
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 35.8% below Wall St target ($51.43)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$38.10 -
$44.28
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.95
(5.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.96
Resistance Level
$39.40
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.72
Wall Street Target
$51.43
(+35.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-7.2%
Profit Margin
1.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.7 vs 10.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$35.91
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$34.04
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$32.27
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$37.76
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 9.8%)
$128.38
(+239%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: 9.8%)
$50.08
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: 9.8%)
$42.57
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.72 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.54
Bull Case
$70.35
(+84%)
Analyst growth 71.0%, PE expands to 16.2
Base Case
$63.95
(+67%)
Market implied 71.0%, PE stable at 14.7
Bear Case
$25.43
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.7 to 10.2
Stabilization Target:
$44.31
(+17.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 5:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is ABM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Rene Jacobsen
SELL
31034 shares
2026-01-13
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