ABR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ABR - Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.
$7.35
0.00 (0.00%)
▲
5d:
-3.03%
30d:
-7.31%
90d:
-7.78%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 01, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ABR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ABR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.47
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.85
32.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ABR is currently trading at $7.35, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.33 to $8.27. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.4) compared to its historical average (9.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.33. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.88 (+20.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.33. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.88 (+20.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$7.33 -
$8.27
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.7% below Wall St target ($8.88)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$7.33 -
$8.27
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.33
Resistance Level
$7.95
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.37
Wall Street Target
$8.88
(+20.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-76.5%
Profit Margin
27.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.4 vs 9.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.89
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$6.45
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$6.05
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→9)
$7.38
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 42.4%)
$64.30
(+775%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.4, Growth: 42.4%)
$21.22
(+189%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.3, Growth: 42.4%)
$18.03
(+145%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.41 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.56
Bull Case
$14.70
(+94%)
Analyst growth 78.0%, PE expands to 14.8
Base Case
$13.37
(+76%)
Market implied 78.0%, PE stable at 13.4
Bear Case
$5.11
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.4 to 9.0
Stabilization Target:
$8.97
(+22.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 8:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ABR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Ivan Kaufman
BUY
29000 shares
2025-11-17
Ivan Kaufman
BUY
25000 shares
2025-11-13
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