ABR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ABR - Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.
$7.70
-0.18 (-2.28%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 20, 2026
19d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ABR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ABR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$6.70
Based on -3.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.16
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ABR is currently trading at $7.70, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.73 to $8.04. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.4) is in line with its historical norms (9.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.88 (+12.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.88 (+12.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$7.73 -
$8.04
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($8.88)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$7.73 -
$8.04
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.50
Resistance Level
$8.45
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.40
Wall Street Target
$8.88
(+12.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-30.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-35.7%
Profit Margin
35.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.4 vs 9.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.86
(0%)
2-Year Target
$7.85
(0%)
3-Year Target
$7.83
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$7.83
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -10.1%)
$13.62
(+73%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.4, Growth: -10.1%)
$5.74
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.0, Growth: -10.1%)
$4.88
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.80 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.79
Bull Case
$9.03
(+17%)
Analyst growth 6.1%, PE expands to 10.8
Base Case
$8.21
(+7%)
Market implied 6.1%, PE stable at 9.8
Bear Case
$5.26
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 12:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ABR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ABR price and gamma walls.
