RITM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RITM - Rithm Capital Corp.
$9.84
0.05 (0.51%)
▲
5d:
+0.51%
30d:
-0.71%
90d:
-8.29%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 8, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: RITM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: RITM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$12.84
Based on 3.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.97
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RITM is currently trading at $9.84, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.60 to $10.11. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 4.2) is in line with its historical norms (4.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 72.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RITM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.60. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.62 (+38.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RITM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.60. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.62 (+38.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$9.60 -
$10.11
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 38.5% below Wall St target ($13.62)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.60 -
$10.11
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.60
Resistance Level
$10.25
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 8, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.22
Wall Street Target
$13.63
(+38.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
64.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
72.2%
Profit Margin
17.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.2 vs 4.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.57
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$9.32
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$9.06
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→5)
$9.89
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 3.3%)
$56.36
(+473%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.2, Growth: 3.3%)
$10.83
(+10%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.6, Growth: 3.3%)
$9.21
(-6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.98 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.09
Bull Case
$21.54
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 9.9
Base Case
$19.58
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 9.0
Bear Case
$6.66
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.2 to 4.6
Stabilization Target:
$10.73
(+9.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 09, 2026 12:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:04 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:04 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RITM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David Zeiden
SELL
19285 shares
2025-11-14
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